College Football Free Pick: Troy vs. Middle Tennessee

Written by:
Johnny Detroit
Published on:
Oct/05/2010
College Football Free Pick

This College Football free pick on the Troy vs. Middle Tennessee game is courtesy of our friends at Pregame.com and Johnny Detroit.

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Middle Tennessee St. welcomes the Troy Trojans for the game of the year in the Sun Belt conference. The winner of this game will take a huge step towards conference supremacy. The Blue Raiders will have star quarterback Dwight Dasher under center tonight for the first time this season. The Blue Raiders are hoping that Dasher provides the necessary spark to beat Troy for the first time in years. Middle Tennessee is a 3 point home favorite tonight. This Sun Belt clash starts at 8:00 EDT, and will be shown live on ESPN.

Middle Tennessee St. has yet to win back to back games SU this season. The Blue Raiders are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS to start this season, all without star QB Dwight Dasher. Dasher had to sit the first 4 games this year due to a suspension brought down by the NCAA. With Dasher back in the fold, this MTSU team can be dynamic. Against Troy tonight, Dasher will have to play well and without any rust from his suspension. MTSU is 1-0 SU in league play this season, and a win against Troy will make them the favorites to win the Sun Belt Conference. MTSU ranks in the Top 50 in both rushing and passing offense this year while averaging 31 PPG, the 48th best in the nation. In their 2 home games this season, the Blue Raiders have allowed an average of 25 PPG. Revenge is likely on the minds of the Blue Raiders, considering they've lost the past 4 games SU to Troy, including losing their past 3 contests ATS.  MTSU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. The Blue Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as the listed home favorite.

The Blue Raiders are 7-0 in their last 7 conference games. The Under is 11-5 in their last 16 home games.

Troy has bad timing, as they are playing their bitter rival just as their star QB returns from a suspension. Tonight's game will mark the 3rd road game in the past 4 weeks for Troy. The Trojans have yet to win a game SU on the road this season, losing to both UAB and Oklahoma St. Tonight will mark only the 2nd time this year the Trojans will be the listed underdog. The other time was against Oklahoma St. as a double digit underdog, that they ultimately won ATS. The Trojans have an elite passing game this year, throwing for 318.3 YPG, which is 6th best in the nation. QB Corey Robinson has thrown for 720 YDS in the past 2 weeks combined. Robinson has led this Troy offense to at least 30 PTS in each game they've played this season. Defensively, Troy must improve because they've allowed each team they've played to score at least 27 PTS. The Trojans are allowing 32.5 PPG this season, the 21st worst in the country. The Trojans are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as the listed underdog. Troy is 21-7 ATS in their last 28 conference games overall.

The Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. The Over is 13-3 in their last 16 games as a road underdog.

Pregame.com’s free college football pick on the Troy vs. Middle Tennessee gamehas the final score to be 42-31 in favor of the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. The Blue Raiders -3 are the Side of the Day!

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Johnny Detroit, Gambling911.com 

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