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49ers vs. Chargers Spread Settling in at -9: Why San Diego Should Win

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Dec/15/2010
49ers vs. Chargers Spread

Two unlikely teams with Playoffs aspirations, the 49ers vs. Chargers spread was listed at -9 at most online sportsbooks, though a few had San Diego at -9.5 coming in Wednesday evening.  This game goes off as part of the NFL’s Thursday night football slate.

Both these teams kept their playoffs hopes alive with big wins last week.  The Chargers are one game behind the Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC West.  San Francisco got some help last week from the division leading Rams and Seahawks losing (the 49ers of course helped in containing Seattle). 

"I think we've put ourselves in a position now, one game back, obviously we understand nothing has changed,” Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers said.  “We've got to go win the rest of them. That's all we can control. You never know what can happen ... in three weeks."

If the 49ers get past this game with a victory they would close the season against St. Louis and Arizona, potentially finishing at 8-8 and creeping into the Playoffs.

Nearly 80 percent of the spread action was going towards the Chargers in this game.  90 percent of the money line betting was going San Diego’s way.  The OVER 45 was getting close to 95 percent of the betting action.  

There are some standout trends below that should be focused on as they apply to the 49ers vs. Chargers game and why San Diego should win easily despite the near double-digit spread.

San Francisco is not a very good team and, when a below .500 team wins by double digits the week before, we like to focus on their ATS record based on such a stat.  Not surprisingly, the 49ers are 5-21-3 Against The Spread in their last 29 games following a Straight Up win of more than 14 points.  Now they come into San Diego with only a few days rest. 

San Francisco is also 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 

They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a Straight Up win and 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.

Keep in mind that the Chargers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games in December.

The Chargers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points, which is somewhat of a meaningless stat, however, San Diego is also 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Going up against San Francisco and the 49ers trends, this negative for San Diego Gambling911.com feels is more than offset. 

Regarding San Francisco’s ability to perform with less than 6 days of rest, they have been around .500 over the past three seasons when it comes to this trend so it’s not something that we believe will have much of an impact. 

As a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points, the Chargers record is 17-6.

It is rare for San Francisco to force turnovers, and this is how they won last weekend against Seattle.  Will be tough against Philip Rivers however.

San Diego has managed to improve dramatically after their slow start as they have become a much more healthier squad, so don’t be fooled by the first few weeks of the season or that loss two weeks ago to the Raiders.  Last week’s dominance over Kansas City should present a more accurate portrayal of the Chargers.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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