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Carrie Stroup with your 2015 SEC Championship betting odds for Florida vs. Alabama. Alabama -17.5, Total: 40
Florida and Alabama will meet once again in Atlanta this Saturday for their 8th SEC Championship matchup.
The 18th-ranked Gators (10-2 SU and 6-5-1 ATS) find themselves in their 11th SEC Championship game since 1992, hoping to erase the memory of their embarrassing 27-2 home loss to Florida State last weekend. Meanwhile, the 2nd-ranked Crimson Tide (11-1 SU and 7-5 ATS), the defending conference champions, have won nine straight games including a 29-13 victory on the road against rival Auburn last week.
The Tide, who are heavy favorites in Saturday’s game, have gotten the better of the Gators over the past few decades, beating them 8-6 SU and 9-4 ATS since 1992 and winning the past four meetings. The teams last met in September 2014, when Alabama doubled up on Florida to cover the spread 42-21 while limiting its opponent to just 93 passing yards.
Bettors can find favorable trends for both teams heading into Saturday. The Gators are 38-17 ATS after a two-game homestand since 1992, and 40-22 ATS over the same period on the road against good passing teams (58%+completion pct). In their opponents’ favor, the Crimson Tide are 32-16 ATS against good passing defenses (allowing 5.75 or fewer YPA) since 1992, and the team is 40-22 ATS after three or more consecutive SU wins under head coach Nick Saban.
For a team competing for a major conference championship, the Florida offense has been well below average this season. The Gators score just 25.2 PPG (92nd in FBS) and have been slipping in recent weeks -- failing to score on offense against Florida State as part of their anemic 15.3 PPG in the past three games.
Sophomore QB Treon Harris has filled in ably, albeit unremarkably, during the back half of the season for starting QB Will Grier, who has been suspended since mid-October. In his turn at the helm, Harris has completed 102-of-190 passes (54%) for 1,365 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions, while adding 193 yards on 73 runs. He struggled last week against the Seminoles though, connecting on 19-of-38 throws (50%) for just 134 yards and no scores.
RB Kelvin Taylor has been the Gators leading scorer this season, finding the end zone 13 times – more than triple the team’s next highest scorers. They have effectively controlled game flow this season, particularly on the road, where they average 34:57 of ball possession per game.
Like its Saturday opponent, Florida’s defense has been outstanding this season, giving up just 15.5 PPG (5th in nation) and 283.6 total YPG.
Alabama, which can secure a berth in the College Football Playoff with a win on Saturday, has been formidable on both sides of the ball this season. The team, which averages 34.5 PPG (33rd in FBS) and 421.3 YPG, has been on fire its past three games – upping its points per game to 38.7.
Junior RB Derrick Henry, the leading rusher in the nation with 1,797 yards and 22 TD, has been the centerpiece of the Alabama offense. Henry set a school record in last week’s game against Auburn with 46 rushing attempts, gaining 271 yards along the way, his fourth 200+ yard effort in just six games.
Senior QB Jake Coker has been solid at the helm for the team, connecting on 204-of-312 (65.4%) for 2,285 yards, 15 TD, and 8 INT on the season. Like their opponent, the Crimson Tide have excelled at clock management, controlling the ball for an average of 33:04 per game.
Alabama’s defense has been elite, limiting opponents to just 14.3 PPG (3rd in FBS), including a mere 8.3 PPG over the past three contests, and a scant 246.6 total YPG. The squad has been particularly effective defending the run, giving up just 79 YPG, and allowing only two opponents all season to hit the 100-yard rushing mark.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
