The Social Network vs. The Kings Speech Oscar Best Picture Odds: Prediction

Let’s face it, when it comes to Oscar Best Picture odds this year there are really only two choices worth considering – unless of course a major upset is in store.  It’s The Social Network vs. The Kings Speech, and Gambling911.com attempts to make a prediction as to which one will ultimately win. 

Both are in on the favorites side of the track, meaning you would have to risk significantly more money to win less than your initial wager.  The Kings Speech, for example, requires a $70 bet to win $10 (with the $70 refunded only if the film wins for Best Picture).  The Social Network would require a $35 bet to win $10.  (all odds courtesy of Bookmaker.com)

First off, it is interesting to point out that, while everyone now is all gaga over The Kings Speech, it was The Social Network that everyone, including the oddsmakers, had made the front runner to win the Oscar in 2011.  The Social Network won the Golden Globe Award, which is often an indicator as to how a film or star will perform at the Oscars.  But The Kings Speech walked off with all three major Guild awards:  Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and Screen Actors Guild.

Just how good is a film’s chances of winning an Oscar if it sweeps the major Guild awards?  The odds are very good.

Six movies have won all three guilds for which five of those six -- American Beauty, Chicago, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, No Country For Old Men, and Slumdog Millionaire — have gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars.

The Kings Speech, in particular, is also the sentimental favorite.  It is about King George VI, who utilized an unorthodox speech therapist in order to overcome his stuttering problem.  King George VI relies on his speech therapist, Lionel Logue, to help him make a radio broadcast at the beginning of World War III.

Reviews for the film have been astonishing.  94 percent of critics loved the film while the overall audience gave it a 95 percent approval according to Rotten Tomatoes, the movie review website. 

Joe Williams of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch said of the film:  “The King's Speech is the epitome of prestige cinema, an impeccably crafted and emotionally compelling drama that deserves the many laurels it surely will receive.”

Bill Goodykoontz of the Arizona Republic offered:  “OK, sure, "The King's Speech" obviously is feel-good Oscar bait, but who cares? It's also a terrific movie with two fantastic performances at its heart.”

Rick Groen of the Globe and Mail had this to say about the Oscar nominee:  “The King's Speech is a lively burst of populist rhetoric, superbly performed and guaranteed to please even discriminating crowds.”

The Social Network received equally glowing reviews from critics.  96 percent of them thoroughly enjoyed the film while 89 percent of the audience responded favorably. 

Lisa Kennedy of the Denver Post said of the film:  “The Social Network shares creative DNA with a handful of classic, zeitgeist-savvy films like Network and All the President's Men, as well as more recent fare such as The Insider and Michael Clayton.”

Carrie Rickey of the Philadelphia Inquirer offered:  “It's astonishing that a movie mostly set in front of computer screens and in deposition rooms, a movie where the end is already known, has the hold of a suspense film.”

Bob Mondello of NPR had this to say about the film:  “The Social Network is terrific entertainment - an unlikely thriller that makes business ethics, class distinctions and intellectual-property arguments sexy.”

In light of what is going on in the Arab world right now with the so-called “Facebook Revolution”, it’s entirely possible The Social Network could get enough of a nudge from the Academy to ensure that film a Best Picture Oscar, but in the end we have to consider the recent Guild awards trend mentioned above, for which The King’s Speech should not be an exception to the rule. 

Bookmaker.com was offering one of the biggest selection of 2011 Oscars betting odds, including Best Picture.   All Best Motion Picture odds appear below.

127 HOURS+4000

BLACK SWAN+1900

INCEPTION+400051109THE FIGHTER+2500

THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT+4000

THE KINGS SPEECH-700

THE SOCIAL NETWORK-350

TOY STORY 3+4000

TRUE GRIT+2000

WINTER'S BONE+4000

- Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher