Denver Nuggets Betting Tips and Trends

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:

As of November 23, the reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets continue where they left off, however, in just a matter of days they slip three notches on the Sagarin Ratings from the No. 2 spot to No. 6.


November 23

The Denver Nuggets Sagarin number had dropped from 94.25 to 93.77 despite owning a 9-5.  This drop at Sagarin is reflected in the Nuggets record Against The Spread (just 5-10).  They'll be facing a Houston Rockets team that is 7-6 Straight Up and an impressive 9-3-1 Against The Spread.  Houston was only ranked No. 20 at Sagarin with a rating calculation of 89.30. 

Houston has home court advantage here.  We end up with a number of Denver 2.14 while the actual line opened on the money at Denver -2. 

Dogs have a slight edge opening at 2/2.5.  Accurate lines of 2/2.5 have had zero edge of any kind. 

Though Houston has beaten the Nuggets the last two meetings (both at home), Denver won the previous eight games.

November 22

Denver's Sagarin number was 94.25.  That's a full point down from where they were back on November 14. 

At 10-4 Straight Up they are still among the best teams in the league right now.  At 5-9 Against The Spread, they are not performing well for bettors.

Coming into Orlando, the Nuggets lost three of their last five games.

We also had a line of Denver -4 though our number came in at Nuggets 1.45, suggesting an overlay here.  These have tended to do well for the underdog.

Denver is 8-2 over the last ten games versus Orlando.

November 20

The Nuggets got embarrassed in Cleveland Sunday night with a 121-109 loss and they come into their game versus the Pistons on a two game losing streak.  Even worse, they are looking to snap a four-game road losing streak.

"They were just better today," Nuggets star center Nikola Jokic said after Sunday night's loss. "Offensive glass, paint -- they were getting everything they want."

Jokic was limited to 28 minutes due to foul issues. He finished with 18 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists.

We have a number of Denver 8.19, making this line pretty accurate (it opened at 8.5).

November 17, 2023

The Nuggets head to New Orleans.  Their most recent road game was in Houston where they lost by three points to a Houston team that is currently 6-3.  Denver has had a tough time covering due to close wins and losses.  They have failed to cover the spread in their last three.  Are they due for a cover here? 

This New Orleans squad is 5-6 Straight Up and 5-5-1 Against The Spread.  They will be coming off the high of beating Dallas 131-110 after losing to the Mavs in the first of a back-to-back series, both at home.  New Orleans had lost five straight games before that one.  They lost by double digits following their last big win (against Detroit). 

New Orleans comes into this one assigned a number of 89.86 at Sagarin but with home court advantage.  Denver's Sagarin number is 95.23.  The number we end up with is Nuggets 2.64.  

Denver actually opened at -3.5 and the number has moved up to -5.5, which makes sense considering action was coming in at 83% favoring the Nuggets.  We do have a 1 to 3 point overlay. 

Four of the last six in this series New Orleans has either won (2) or played close (one covering the current spread and another in OT that Denver ultimately won by 8 points).

Denver’s defense only allows 106.3 points per game and will face a New Orleans team that is short-handed. The following four players are sidelined for the Pelicans:

    G Jose Alvarado (ankle) doubtful
    G CJ McCollum (lung) out
    F Trey Murphy III (knee) out
    F Larry Nance Jr. (rib) out

Denver comes into this one mostly healthy.

November 14, 2023

The Nuggets will offer a payout of $450 for every $100 bet should they go on to win the 2024 NBA Championship.  These odds must be locked in, otherwise they are subject to change.

Boston Celtics         +375
Denver Nuggets         +450
Milwaukee Bucks         +450
Phoenix Suns         +650
Los Angeles Lakers         +1800
Golden State Warriors         +1200
Miami Heat         +4000
Los Angeles Clippers         +1800
Philadelphia 76ers         +1400
Memphis Grizzlies         +8000

The Denver Nuggets Sagarin number was coming in at 95.23.

Unlike the Celtics, which were covering no matter any discrepancy in the line, Denver played games too close over the past week and this is resulting in failed covers, even with wins.

One should note that the Houston Rockets, for whom Denver played on November 12, are rated No. 21 on Sagarin despite their 6-3 rating at this time.  They are likely to trend upwards assuming no regression.

11/8 - vs. Warriors – Denver 5.90, actual line Denver –3 to –5, overlay of 2 to on the money.  Denver fails to cover with a 3 point win. Action was balanced.  

11/12 - at Rockets – Denver 4.03, actual line –3 to -5, on the money.  Denver fails to cover with Houston winning by 3.  Action was 60% on Denver with the line moving in the right direction (upwards) based on action flowing in.      

11/14 - vs. Clippers – Denver 7.33, actual line Nuggets –5 to –4.  The line had moved to –5.5 early at some books.  Underlay of 2 to 3 points.  Nuggets fail to cover with a 3 point win.  We were seeing balanced action.

11/17 - at Pelicans - To Be Determined

- Don Shapiro,

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