Notre Dame is Giving Bookmakers Agita

The Fighting Irish are hoping to lock down a first-round home game in the College Football Playoff, but their spot in the 12-team postseason field seems secure no matter what happens here.

Notre Dame has won six straight by at least 18 points. This has been reflected in their record Against The Spread with seven straight covers. You better believe all those Northern Indiana bookmakers are praying for a USC cover this day.  This is where having the best bookie software truly pays off.

The Trojans secured bowl eligibility with a 19-13 win at UCLA, and sweeping both rivalry games would give head coach Lincoln Riley something to build on after a disappointing first year in the Big Ten. USC has won three of the past four home games in the venerable intersectional affair, which dates to 1926.

“It’s always an important game,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said. “It’s a rivalry game. There’s a lot of history behind it. It’s two great programs. It’s played in iconic places. I just think that when you come here, the history behind this game is just so epic. It just is. I think it would be disrespectful to not be as ready as you possibly can be.”

USC comes into this game with a 6-5 record Straight Up.

What the Line Should Be

The line has moved from Irish -7 to -7.5 with around 80% of the backing going towards Notre Dame here.

Sagarin gives us a number of 8.47, indicating a slight underlay.

Comparables

Here we would look at the specific trend of a road favorite line moving from -7 to -7.5 while considering both a small underlay and a number that is pretty accurate.  Even with the -7 to -7.5 trend, we would not compare a game with a significant underlay or a line that hits the 8.

Case in point: Louisville this season was a -7/-7.5 favorite at Virginia with a big underlay (line should have been Louisville -13.39).  The home dog Virginia did cover in this one.  But the underlay was too large compared to the Notre Dave vs. USC game spread.

• Illinois -7.5 Nebraska (road favorite Illinois covers and wins big) Illinois 8.75 Underlay 1 point - The road favorite covered here.  Outside of the steady 7.5, this game compares nicely with today's matchup.
• USC -7.5 Maryland (USC 7.95 On The Money) - Home dog covers.

As you can see, our comparables are limited for today's game.  We're less inclined to make a play as a result.

Key Matchup

Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love vs. USC LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold. Love has back-to-back games with at least 130 yards rushing, two touchdowns and a run of at least 68 yards, supercharging the Irish ground game. The Trojans have shown solid improvement in stopping the run, with the Oregon State transfer Mascarenas-Arnold denying a key third-down run in the fourth quarter among his six tackles against the Bruins.

Players to Watch

Notre Dame: QB Riley Leonard has settled in after a slow start, with 11 total touchdowns to one interception over the last four games. He didn’t have to do much in the 49-14 rout of Army, throwing for 148 yards and two scores on 13 attempts. Riley is one of six FBS quarterbacks who has thrown for at least 1,900 yards and run for 650 this season.

USC: QB Jayden Maiava wasn’t prolific in his first road start, but his mobility made the difference on the game-winning touchdown pass with 6:55 remaining in the fourth quarter. Given how the Trojans struggled in the red zone against UCLA, scoring one touchdown in five chances, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Maiava is used as a runner inside the 20 vs. the Irish.

What Else to Consider Before Placing That Bet

• USC is hardly a slouch when it comes to covering as they've gone 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
• This annual long-distance showdown originally became momentous back when every game wasn’t on television, back when teams didn’t habitually traverse the continent to play college football — and also back when USC didn’t play in a conference with two other schools from Indiana.
• Notre Dame has held six straight opponents to 14 points or fewer, its longest streak since 2012.
• USC is 6-14-2 when unranked against a ranked Notre Dame team.