Can the Pittsburgh Steelers Cover the Spread Against the Rams?
Pittsburgh is 3-2, LA is 3-3. Steelers are 3-2 Against The Spread. The Rams are 4-1-1 Against The Spread and we would expect this to correct itself.
Line Movement and Action: Steelers vs. Rams
The Rams were just sitting at -3 with an occasional move to -3.5 but we haven't observed too many other number hits. Bookmaker had been at 3.5 and dropped to 3. Pinnacle was at 3 overnight. Circa was at 3 all week. Bovada had moved to 3.5 a few times but was back to 3 overnight. DraftKings did not come off the 3. Sagarin gives us a number of 0.31 Rams. That suggests an overlay of 3.
Overlays when the line is 3.5/4 without going under the 3 have been very good to dogs based on our stats. Pittsburgh is very tempting here.
The BetUS Betting Preview: Steelers vs. Rams
BetUS host Jared Smith, and expert handicappers Las Vegas Cris and Steve Fezzik analyze the NFL game Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Rams. They'll go over the latest football betting trends, and best value NFL odds available and share their football expert predictions for this NFL Week 7 game.
Steelers vs Rams Predictions | NFL Week 7 Game Analysis & Picks @BetUS_Official https://t.co/o8chwLjpbr via @YouTube
— gambling911 (@gambling911) October 22, 2023
Las Vegas Cris suggests that "Pittsburgh has no offense."
He adds: "It's amazing that they have three wins. It's just flabbergasting. I just think it's an anomoly that can't keep up.
"The Rams have an issue this week with their running backs....But they've got a great receiving corp. They have (Matthew) Stafford and they are facing a team that is extremely vulnerable in the secondary. And they should have success against Pittsburgh. They should be able to move the ball. They should be able to score and I don't know how Pittsburgh is going to be able to keep up."
Cris does point out that the Steelers are "getting help here with some components back on offense that may help".
Steve Fezzik said he would make this one a -3.5 on a neutral field. But once again we have Sagarin suggesting a PICK'EM in LA.
More Notes About This Matchup
From the Associated Press:
The player to watch with the Steelers is T.J. Watt.
"The All-Pro edge rusher's eight sacks through five games are well ahead of his pace in 2021 when he tied Michael Strahan's NFL record with 22 1/2 and won Defensive Player of the Year.
"With Pittsburgh's offense a perpetual work in progress, the defense will likely need to force a turnover — probably more than one. Perhaps no defensive player in the league can swing a game's momentum as quickly as Watt."
Rams WR Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua vs. Steelers CB Patrick Peterson and Levi Wallace is the matchup to watch.
"If Peterson and Wallace can’t be sticky enough to give the fierce Steelers pass rush time to generate pressure, it could be another long day. "
The Steelers are relatively healthy coming out of their bye and, as Cris noted already, they get a couple of key components back.
Hot Stats That Could Point to a Steelers Cover
- The Steelers are 22-12 all-time coming off a bye and have won six straight after their off week since 2017.
- This is the Steelers' second visit to SoFi Stadium. Pittsburgh lost to the Los Angeles Chargers 41-37 during the 2021 season.
- Sagarin ratings have this one at Rams 0.31 or a Pick'em.
- Pittsburgh often finds its footing in October, particularly on the road.
Another Hot Stat to Consider
- Despite turning in his least productive game as a pro so far with four receptions for 26 yards against Arizona, Nacua set NFL records for the most receptions (50) and yards receiving (598) by a rookie through six games.
Steelers vs. Rams Game and Player Prop Bets
LAR Total Touchdowns O/U 2.5
PIT Total Touchdowns O/U 2.5
LAR Total Field Goals O/U 1.5
PIT Total Field Goals O/U 1.5
Time of First Score O/U 7 (mins elapsed)
3 Straight Scores by Either Team
Team to Score Last
Team to Score First
Highest Scoring Half
Race to 10 Points
Race to 15 Points
Race to 20 Points
Will there be a safety
Largest Lead (either team) O/U 14.5
Will LAR Score on their First Drive
Will PIT Score on their First Drive
Defensive or special teams TD scored
Longest Touchdown O/U 34.5 Yards
Any Team to Score 40+ Points
Both Teams to Score 19.5
Both Teams to Score 24.5
First score of Game is Touchdown
Team to Score First Wins
Team to Score Last Wins
Will there be Overtime
Will there be a Scoreless Quarter
Total Points Odd
Total First Downs O/U 39.5
Most First Downs
First Drive Result
Margin of Victory Prop Bet
Steelers to win by 1-6 pts +350
Steelers to win by 7-12 pts +650
Steelers to win by 13-18 pts +1200
Steelers to win by 19-24 pts +2200
Steelers to win by 25-30 pts +4500
Steelers to win by 31-36 pts +8000
Steelers to win by 37-42 pts +10000
Steelers to win by 43 or More pts +11000
Rams to win by 1-6 pts +280
Rams to win by 7-12 pts +425
Rams to win by 13-18 pts +650
Rams to win by 19-24 pts +1100
Rams to win by 25-30 pts +2200
Rams to win by 31-36 pts +4000
Rams to win by 37-42 pts +6600
Rams to win by 43 or More pts +10000
Tie +5000
The Verdict
We see the Rams being able to win by 1 or 2 points, or potential a field goal. A 3-point victory will result in a push most books. But even with a victory here, we have a tough time seeing LA entering next week at 5-1-1 Against The Spread considering what would be a 4-3 Straight Up record with a win. Pittsburgh is hardly that big of a surprise as Las Vegas Cris claims if one studies their record both Straight Up and Against The Spread (3-2 for both). Once the books have already shown a willingness to move to 3.5, there shouldn't be a line of 3 with nearly 80% of the backing on LA. Circa had this one at Rams -3 Sunday morning. Pinnacle was at -3.5. We will be on the Steelers +3.5 here.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
