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The online prediction markets are saying that unemployment in the United States could go above a staggering 9 percent by year's end.
Intrade.com customers were gambling the OVER at a near 80 percent clip.
"Those numbers seem realistic following this past week's results," says Payton O'Brien of Gambling911.com. "
In some regions and with some demographics, the unemployment rate has gone well over 9 percent already.
The jobless rate rose to 8.1 percent in February as employers reduced payrolls by 651,000, the Labor Department said yesterday in Washington. Losses have now exceeded 600,000 for three straight months, the first time that's happened since collection of the data began in 1939.
Sportsbook.com, the largest online gambling firm catering to the North American public, was also contemplating putting up odds on the total unemployment rate, though the number will likely be set closer to 10 percent.
"The gambling sites, which to date have barely been affected by the current recession, are already preparing for a slowdown next football season (September), traditionally the busiest for the Internet sportsbooks," said Carrie Stroup, Senior Reporter for the Gambling911.com website.
Sportsbook.com, like many companies, are doing everything they can to remain competitive. This month they brought back their popular 5 percent cash back on losses promotion.
Predictify is another website that attempts to forecast outcomes utilizing prediction markets, though the site itself does not take bets. The bad news is that under 38 percent of the nearly 900 people who voted in regard to the world recession said it would not be over in 2009.
Jagajeet Chiba, Gambling911.com
