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Boston sits atop the Sagarin Ratings with a 99.5. That's a full point ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers.
January 6
Celtics -5 to -7 Pacers: Boston is 7-3 Straight Up in the last ten meetings. Boston is 3-7 Against The Spread using the current spread. Boston is 1-3 Against The Spread using the current spread in Indianapolis.
Winners and Whiners: "It's highly unlikely that the Celtics will lose again anytime soon. Also, falling victim to the Pacers again probably won't happen, considering that (Kristaps) Porzingis didn't play in the most recent matchup. However, Porzingis started in the first meeting, a 155-104 Boston win.
"He presents a matchup problem that an already weak Pacers defense doesn't need to contend with. Also, his rim defense allows Boston to play more aggressively on the perimeter."
Hot NBA Cappers Celtics vs. Pacers: 2-0
January 2
Boston opened as a -3 point favorite. Dogs have done especially well in the 3 to 3.5 range thus far this season (33-16 based on our model). We have the wrong team favored as our number comes in at Thunder 2.38. That being said, the last two times we had the wrong team favored in this line range, the favorite did manage to cover. Add in that Boston is 8-2 over the last ten games of this season and they are looking to avenge last January's embarrassing 150-117 loss, it's easy to see the Celtics covering here as well.
December 22
You might be surprised to know that the last four times Boston was a -7 or greater favorite with the opening line, that number was deemed to be on the money. And they covered in all but one of those.
Boston won't be anywhere near a -7 point or greater favorite in LA on Saturday December 23. They should still be a slight favorite of around -2 facing off against the Clippers.
November 20
97.63 is your updated Sagarin number, slightly down from last week but still holding pat at No. 1.
They will take on the lowly Charlotte Hornets on the road as a -9 favorite after opening at -9.5.
We have the Celtics at 12.55, so there is a definitive underlay here and this does bode well for the favorite in this line region.
November 17, 2023
The Celtics are also the favorites to win the 2024 NBA Championship with a payout of $375 for every $100 bet should they do so.
Boston Celtics +375
Denver Nuggets +450
Milwaukee Bucks +450
Phoenix Suns +650
Los Angeles Lakers +1800
Golden State Warriors +1200
Miami Heat +4000
Los Angeles Clippers +1800
Philadelphia 76ers +1400
Memphis Grizzlies +8000
Boston's number on Sagarin was 97.94. That's around two points greater than the next rated team, the Denver Nuggets. With a home court advantage of 2.73 currently, the Celtics line would be expected at between -5 and -5.5 if they were to host the Nuggets on this day.
Do not bet against the Celtics. That's the lesson we have learned over the past week. Whether there are significant underlays, overlays and more public money coming in on Boston than their opponent, the Celtics covered all their games over the past week. It did not matter whether the line was in double digits either.
Even playing two teams within the Sagarin Top 10 ratings (the 76ers and Knicks), Boston still managed to get the job done.
Noticably, Boston appeared unfazed by a back-to-back game on November 11, beating the Raptors by quite a bit.
11/10 - vs. Nets – Boston 10.93, Actual Line 10.5 to 11.5, On The Money, Celtics cover with 14 point win. 81% of action was on Celtics and line moved up a point.
11/11 vs. Raptors (next night) - Boston 12.78, Actual Line 10.5 to 8.5, Underlay of 4 points, Celtics cover with big 23-point win. 63% of action on Raptors with line dropping two points to get more money on Boston. Celtics playing the back-to-back had zero impact in the end.
11/13 vs. Knicks – Boston 7.94, Actual line –8.5 to –10.5. On The Money to Overlay of 2.5 with 70% of action on the Knicks. Celtics cover with a 16 point win.
11/15 at 76ers – Boston 1.20, Actual line Celtics open –3.5 moving to –5.5 and dropping back to –1, Overlay of 2 to 4 then On The Money with Celtics winning by 10 and covering. Action 85% on Celtics at –5 and number brought down with action still high at 69% but WHY IS THE NUMBER FALLING? Perhaps the number was falling as Philadelphia had played the night prior, losing to Indiana?
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
