Bet on When the Trump Federal Trial Will Take Place

Written by:
Gilbert Horowitz
Published on:

It's a mixed bag when a trial will take place for former US President Donald Trump.  He has been indicted on 37 counts of mishandling classified documents

The indictment marks the first time in U.S. history that a former president faces criminal charges by the federal government he once oversaw.

Trump says he is innocent and BetOnline is currently offering odds on whether he takes a plea bargain at 5-1 odds, something those with intimate knowledge of the former President say is highly unlikely.

We are also learning that there will be no mug shot taken in Tuesday's arraignment at a Miami federal court house.

Many experts say it's unlikely a Trump trial could happen before the 2024 election. The case has been assigned to U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon, a Florida judge based in the West Palm Beach area who previously ruled in Trump's favor regarding how classified documents should be handled.  Some believe her assignment to the case could throw a wrench in the process.

One thing is for sure, forget the OJ Trial, this one will be the Trial of the Millennium should it be televised.  And our friends at BetOnline plan to offer the biggest slate of Trump bets on the planet.  So stay tuned.


Odds on the Trial Being Held Before the End of 2023

Richard Gregorie, veteran SDFL prosecutor, speaking on MSNBC Tuesday morning said that he believes it is possible the trial could get underway as soon as November of THIS year (2023).  He admitted this to be an optimistic target date. 

We think so to and have assigned odds of 4-1 to this scenario.

Southern Florida's federal courts are known as a "rocket docket" for their speedy trials, however, so 2023 is not as big a long shot as some might think.

Odds on the Trial Being Held in 2024

This is the more likely time frame. And it is possible that a trial could be held after the November 2024 election, still within this same year as the Joe Biden Administration will be in charge right up until the first week of 2025, and quite possibly beyond should Biden win reelection.

Former Trump lawyer Tim Parlatore tells Axios “I wouldn't foresee this thing getting tried within a year", but that leaves us with plenty of months left in 2024.

"I can foresee some fairly substantive motions to dismiss" the case, Parlatore added. "I could also see them going through several discovery motions, and there will be fights over disclosure. I think each round of motions is going to take three months."

Odds of a Trump trial in 2024 were coming in at -200.

Odds on the Trial Taking Place in 2025 or Beyond

Any delays with a Democrat still in the White House and a 2025 trial date is still possible, though it's highly unlikely the process will take this long.

A Republican winning the White House stands a better chance of seeing the case thrown out.

Trump winning in November 2024 almost guarantees the case will be thrown out.

Odds of a trial date beyond 2024 were set at 6-1.

Odds of a Plea Bargain

As noted above, BetOnline has that number currently set at 5-1 but these are live odds so monitor closely here.

No Trial as a Result of Case Being Tossed

The least likely scenario based on time and other considerations (i.e. a Republican winning the White House in 2024). 

We set this one at 8-1 odds.

For Donald Trump, the 2024 campaign is more than a race to return to the White House — it's a fight to stay out of prison, Axios notes.

And here's a scary thought: Trump could actually serve as President while serving prison time.

The odds of the former President going to jail, however, are quite high at BetOnline currently.

- Gilbert Horowitz,

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