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Tony Caliente here with the Thunder-Rockets betting line, coming in at Houston -6. There's a bit of an underlay detected here with the NBA Betting Power Ratings indicating this one should be at -7.5.
The Thunder have won half of their last ten games while covering in 40% while Houston is 9-1 Straight Up in their last ten and covering the spread at a 50% clip.
Houston leads the league overall with a 64-15 record but is a mere four wins above the .500 mark Against The Spread.
So far, having reviewed the Power Ratings, the Rockets would appear to have an edge. But next stop would be a look at who the public is backing.
60% of the action is on the Thunder, presumably based on the theory that Oklahoma City will be out for revenge. They lost at home against Houston their last meeting by 10 points. In five previous games the Thunder either won or covered within the current spread of six.
The Rockets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Northwest.
The Thunder are just 4-13 Against The Spread in the last 17 meetings.
For this one I would typically yield to the Power Ratings, but a part of me believes Houston doesn't play to its fullest against a capable OKC team as they have already clinched home field advantage. The revenge factor also plays a more signficant role here, not to mention OKC wanting to secure their Playoffs berth. Thunder -6 should be a good bet here.
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- Tony Caliente, Gambling911.com
