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Gambling911.com exclusive sports handicapper Fred Wallin talks betting baseball and how pitching plays an important role in winning for gamblers
Since I was very little, my dad and others always told me that baseball was 60%, 70% or 80% pitching, and it's hard to disagree.
However, if we're talking about wagering on baseball--as crazy as it sounds--maybe these numbers are low.
I've been wagering for a long time and to me the easiest play--and nothing really is easy in wagering--is betting on the total runs.
That way, you're never giving big odds and if even one of the hurler blows up, you probably have a winning play.
What I look for is a hurler like Joe Saunders or Ted Lilly going on one side and any kind of journeyman type on the other.
Fred Wallin has stared off the Major League Baseball season in 2012 going 8-2 - Scroll Down for More...
You're looking for hurlers who will not break any bats and also hurlers who are basically fly ball types.
Say what you want about the sabermetric crew, but this fly ball to grounder percentage really helps in finding easy plays.
Frankly, if I see a Saunders or Lilly, or Marquis going, I'm hard pressed not to think the Over would be a good play.
However, Citi Field and Petco Park make even these guys sometimes look like Cy Young, so at those parks, we pass much of the time.
Another tactic I use is simply to look for a consistently dominant type pitcher who is having some trouble.
Now Tim Lincecum would be considered dominant, so we jumped on him Opening Day against the Diamondbacks with Kennedy pitching, but, well you, don't win them all.
However, in the long run, you come out many units ahead if you understand that class does tell over an extended period of time, and a Lincecum will beat a Kennedy most of the time.
More later, but for now, may all your bets be winning one,s and right now we're winning a whole lot more than we're losing right here on Gambling911.com.
(This is the first in a series of articles on sports handicapping that will be presented by Gambling911.com staff handicapper Fred Wallin.)
By Fred Wallin
Gambling911.com Staff Handicapper
