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One thing we like to watch is when a hot starting pitcher, typically an ace, falls. He's typically due for a nice bouce back his next start.
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Such should be the case with Zach Davies of the Milwaukee Brewers. He'll be facing the San Diego Padres Wednesday on the road following a loss in San Francisco Friday night.
Some 86% of the action was on the Milwaukee Brewers money line coming into this one.
The Brewers were in San Francisco with Milwaukee favored -135, dropping from -150. Something didn't sit well here with us and we were on target. If San Francisco were a little closer to the .500 mark, we might have pulled the trigger on the Giants.
Zach Davies was 7-0, 2.41 ERA for the Brewers, so it was pretty obvious why the betting public would be eating them up.
In the end, he surrendered three runs over five innings in a loss to the Giants on Friday. He’ll carry a 7-1 record with a 2.60 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 50/22 K/BB ratio into his next start against the Padres on Wednesday.
Davies is set to start next versus the Padres in San Diego so watch this one closely as Milwaukee should be favored but likely under the -160 price since it's on the road.
What really stands out here is the head-to-head record between Milwaukee and San Diego. The Brewers are 9-3 versus the Padres in their last 12 meetings.
As always, we will want to review the line movement and total for this game come Wednesday as well as any other variables that might come into play. A price over -160 is a no-go.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
