UCF Chance of Getting Into College Football Playoff: 1 in 2000

Written by:
Ean Lamb
Published on:
Nov/09/2018

FiveThirtyEight.com has listed all the possible outcomes where UCF (still undefeated as of this writitng) can make the College Football Playoffs, though they admit the scenarios are tough.

Here are three they suggest must happen:

    UCF wins all four remaining games, including the American championship. (Duh.)
    Both Notre Dame and Washington State lose at least one remaining game, and at least one loses twice.
    Oklahoma and Michigan both fail to win their respective conference championships.

The bad news:

Chance of happening: less than 1 in 2,000.

From FiveThirtyEight.com:

These probably aren’t the only scenarios under which UCF makes the playoff, but there just aren’t very many UCF-friendly combinations that come up in the simulations. Their 4 percent overall probability of making the playoff is more about adding up a bunch of fractional chances over the course of many simulations — where they’re not overly likely to make it in any given one, but there’s enough uncertainty that they could potentially get in.

And that’s the important thing to remember when discussing UCF’s playoff chances: The selection committee has never taken an undefeated Group-of-Five conference team2 in four years of picking playoff squads, and similar undefeated candidates (UCF last year, Western Michigan two years ago) have been denied entry by the committee.

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