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In publishing today's game previews, Gambling911.com included some solid Major League Baseball betting tips as they apply to totals. Check them out below.
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Hot Tip #1 for Betting Totals in Baseball
When 65% or more of the betting public is on the OVER, watch for books to move the total down an entire run (i.e. 8.5 to 7.5). This is in indication that the expert cappers working on the behalf of the books have stumbled upon a tried and true trend that favors the UNDER while gamblers are even more enticed to eat up the OVER with the reduced number.
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Hot Tip #2 for Betting Totals in Baseball
Generally when the UNDER would look more favorable in a particular series, we would look for a total that is dropping, as noted above. Say for example the number was falling from 7 to 6.5. There is more to be done. We would then review the starting pitcher recent performance for each team. In situations where both starters have pitched well throughout the season and gave up significant runs in their last outing (and especially two most recent outings), the chances that they are going to reduce the number of runs in this matchup become that much greater and and UNDER that much more likely. Recent head-to-head total outcomes should also be taken into consideration.
Hot Tip #3 for Betting Totals in Baseball
An ace vs. ace scenario is often good to find when betting on totals and the focus will primarily be on the UNDER. In these situations, do not be scared off by a 6 or 6.5. Typically, oddsmakers will set lines of 7 or 7.5 based on their belief that the game will end up going OVER that total, but this is a high enough number (especially the 7.5) to encourage wagering on the UNDER. An ace vs. ace scenario where the number moves from -7 to -7.5 and the public is overwhelmingly on the UNDER suggests the books have a strong opinion that this one is going OVER 7.5.
- Tony Caliente, Gambling911.com
