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Soccer Betting: Futures Plays to Make Right Now

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:
Nov/18/2019

Here’s the third part of our look at the BetOnline.ag soccer futures board and the plays you should make right now.  Much of futures betting is timing and these plays all look to be at the height of their betting value.

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FRENCH LIGUE 1—TO WIN 2019-2020 FRENCH LIGUE 1

BET MARSEILLE +5000 TO WIN FRENCH LIGUE 1 2019-2020

Paris Saint-Germain aka PSG has won 6 of the last 7 Ligue 1 titles and they’re currently 8 points clear of second place Olympique de Marseille.  Although PSG is in the driver’s seat at the moment getting the second-place team at 50/1 odds is astounding.  Marseille and PSG have each lost 3 games this season.  The difference in the standings is that PSG has 10 wins while Marseille has just 6 wins and 4 draws. It’s a unique challenge for PSG to maintain top form in a league where they’re expected not just to win but to do so in dominating fashion.  This is obviously a low risk/high reward play and if Marseille does start to narrow the gap you’ll see this price plummet.

FRENCH LIGUE 1—TO WIN 2019-2020 FRENCH LIGUE 1 W/O PSG

BET MARSEILLE +250 TO WIN FRENCH LIGUE 1 2019-2020 W/O PSG
BET LILLE +1400  TO WIN FRENCH LIGUE 1 2019-2020 W/O PSG

Marseille has plenty of company with the #2 and #13 teams on the Ligue 1 table separated by a total of four points in the standings.  One thing that Marseille has done well this year is to scrap out draws in games that most teams would lose.  They’re scrappy if nothing else and that scrap could keep them near the top of the table all year.  The +1400 longshot play on Lille is based on a combination of their generally decent play (5-4-4 YTD) and their +5 differential which is the second best in the league not including PSG.  Lille finished as runner up to PSG last year so it definitely wouldn’t be an unprecedented performance.

FRENCH LIGUE 1—TOP 3 FINISH 2019-2020 FRENCH LIGUE 1

BET LILLE +600 TOP THREE FINISH FRENCH LIGUE 1 2019-2020
BET MONTPELLIER +1400  TOP THREE FINISH FRENCH LIGUE 1 2019-2020

The prices for this market are interesting as the favorite is Lyon, a team currently in 14th place on the table.  That is a bit misleading since they’re just 8 points back of second place Marseille and they’ve got the best goals for/against differential after PSG at +7.  That raises another issue, however, as there’s little reason to lay a price with a team that puts up good stats but finds ways not to win.  Once again, we’ll look down the table for value.  We talked about Lille previously and they’re +600 in this market.  Our other choice is Montpellier who like Lille also has 19 points and a nearly identical +4 goals for/against differential. 

MEXICO LIGA MX—TO WIN 2019-2020 LIGA MX APERTURA

BET SANTOS LAGUNA +350 TO WIN 2019-2020 LIGA MX APERTURA

BET TIGRES UANL +350 TO WIN 2019-2020 LIGA MX APERTURA

Mexico’s top national league has a somewhat unusual format.  Each season has two competitions:  Apurtura, which begins in the Summer and Clausura which starts in the Winter.  This format has gained a good deal of popularity in the Spanish speaking world.  Each competition consists of 17 games after which the top 8 teams on the table enter into a playoff system.  The knockout rounds have each pairing play one game home and away after which the team with the best score on the aggregate advances.   Santos Laguna had the best record during the 17 Apertura regular season going 11-3-3 with 38 goals scored and 23 conceded giving them a +15 differential, the best in the league.  Tigres UANL finished in 5th place on the table but they’ve done very well in the knockout stages in recent years.  They won the 2018-2019 Clausura competition, the 2017-2018 Apertura, the 2016-2017 Apertura and the 2015-2016 Apuertura.  They also finished second in the 2016-2017 Clausera.  No matter the sport, there are teams that perform well during the regular season while other teams thrive in the sudden death pressure of the playoffs.  Tigres UANL looks to be one of the teams that feasts on the pressure of knockout rounds.

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