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Political Betting News: South Carolina Race Could Spell Doom and Gloom for Cheney

Written by:
Gilbert Horowitz
Published on:
Jun/15/2022

Gambling911.com has all your latest political betting news with odds available here at BetOnline.

June

Wednesday 15

South Carolina Race Could Spell Doom and Gloom for Cheney - The huge loss by long-time incumbent Rep. Tom Rice could be an indication of what's to come in August for Wyoming Congresswoman Liz Cheney.  Rice was one of the few Republicans, along with Cheney, that voted to impeach former U.S. President Donald Trump. He later became one of 35 Republicans to vote to create an independent commission that would investigate the storming of the Capitol.

BetOnline currently has Cheney at -600 NOT to be re-elected.  Cheney also sits on the January 6th Committee where she seres as Vice Chair.

Wyoming's GOP primary is open to Democrats, which could certainly cut into margins, and even push Cheney over the edge.  He role on the Committee continues to divide her constituents in Wyoming as she prepares to face a Trump-backed challenger, Harriet Hageman.

liz-cheney-061022.png

Wyoming Journalist Bill Sniffin of the Cowboy State Daily asked the question: Can Liz Cheney Campaign Rise From The Political Ashes?

He writes:

With her anti-Trump stance, Cheney has become one of the most high-profile politicians in America. She is the darling of the mainstream media, which universally hates Trump.

Although this is a Republican primary, I can see four distinct types of voters in this race: Pro-Cheney, Anti-Cheney, Pro-Hageman, and Democrats for Cheney.

Sniffin broke down his predictions if the primary were to be held today, with Hagerman winning by 10,000 votes.

Pro-Cheney – 35,000.

Dems for Cheney – 10,000.

Anti-Cheney – 25,000.

Pro-Hageman – 30,000.

Although Cheney has raised over $10 million compared to Hageman’s $2 million, her success in this race will come down to one simple goal. She must convince thousands of Wyoming voters over the next two months to change their minds and vote for her. This could be a tough sell.  

Tough, perhaps, not impossible.

Liz’s secret weapon will be the 10,000 Democrats, Independents, and other Trump-haters who will cross over to vote in the Aug. 16 primary. I talked with two of them this week, Tom Jones and Alan Culver, who said they are definitely crossing over on election day. A statewide Democrat leader told me that every single Democrat he knows will be crossing party lines to vote for Liz.

Then there was this: 

Cheney supporter, Republican operative John Brown says: “I’ve seen a lot of Hageman signs, especially up near Buffalo and Sheridan. It looks like that’s her stronghold. However, Cheney signs have just been distributed, and I’ve seen a few in Lander, but I’ve seen more in Riverton, which surprises me! I’m tempted to predict Harriet will win based on what I’ve seen early in ‘sign season.’ However, I suspect we’ll see more Cheney signs than you might expect."

It should be noted that this race is shaping up to be the most expensive political campaign in Cowboy State history.  It's also hard to believe that the state with the smallest population will attract the largest national attention come August.

Monday 13

More and More Democrats Say Biden Shouldn't Run in 2024 - US President Joe Biden will be 82 come November 2024.  He will be 86 at the end of a second term, assuming he wins.  Most of us won't live to be that old.

According to Reid J. Epstein and Jennifer Medina of the New York Times, interviews with nearly 50 Democratic officials, from county leaders to members of Congress, as well as with disappointed voters who backed Mr. Biden in 2020, reveal a party alarmed about Republicans’ rising strength and extraordinarily pessimistic about an immediate path forward.

“To say our country was on the right track would flagrantly depart from reality,” said Steve Simeonidis, a Democratic National Committee member from Miami. Mr. Biden, he said, “should announce his intent not to seek re-election in ’24 right after the midterms.”

Appearing on CNN's State of the Union on Sunday, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, could not say whether she would support a Biden re-election.

"I think if the President has a vision, then that's something certainly we're all willing to entertain and examine when the time comes," Ocasio-Cortez told host Dana Bash.

Presently BetOnline has Biden leaving office - by choice or otherwise - in 2025.  Those odds are currently set at -225.

Friday 10

January 6 Committee Primetime Hearing Watched By Estimated 20 Million Viewers - The numbers are in and they were pretty good, albeit Joe Biden's State of the Union saw nearly double the viewers earlier this year.

An estimated 20 million people watched the January 6th Committee primetime hearing across 12 networks, according to Nielsen.  PBS numbers are not factored in due to their unique delivery system.

The breakdown is as such: 55+ years old - 15.2 million viewers. An estimated 3.6 million viewers watched in the 35-54 category, and 834,000 among 18-34 year olds.

ABC drew 4.88 million viewers, followed by MSNBC with 4.16 million, NBC with 3.56 million, CBS with 3.37 million, CNN with 2.62 million, Fox Business Network with 223,128, CNBC with 158,439, Newsmax with 137,268 and NewsNation with 59,580.

Thursday 9

January 6 Committee Hearings Go Primetime - While we realize there are those seeking out betting odds on Thursday night's first primetime hearings tied to January 6, there are really none to be found.  Ratings odds might be offered for the next scheduled primetime hearing.  For now, there is no real precedent to create odds.

The hearings focus on a January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol with around a half-dozen such hearings anticipated this summer. 

“It’s all about democratic resiliency. Can we fortify our institutions and our people against insurrection, coups and violence?” Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., a committee member, told NBC News. “I hope we will be able to spur the country to make the necessary reforms to solidify democracy.”

Most of the major networks will be broadcasting the hearings live, so this will give a whole new meaning to "Must See TV".  Unless you are streaming or watching Fox News, there is no avoiding this from the US. 

Do look for odds on former US President Donald Trump in the 2024 Presidential race and whether he remains the favorite to be the GOP nominee at BetOnline.

Wyoming Congresswoman Liz Cheney will take center stage and BetOnline currently has odds on her winning the Wyoming GOP Primary (Democrats CAN vote in that one).  They have her currently favored to lose.  Personally we think her winning is a value bet.

It should be noted that Nancy Mace did win her GOP primary in South Carolina despite drawing the ire of Trump.   She pivoted somewhat in an attempt to appease the former President.

Monday 6

Confidence Vote Held Against Johnson: Latest Exit Odds -  British Prime Minister Boris Johnson faced a confidence vote on Monday following a series of scandals, including a damning official report about COVID-19 lockdown-breaking parties at his official residence.  The vote was much closer against him than expected, though he still managed to squeak by with 211 support and 148 against.

Johnson has vowed to fight on as leader, but if he loses the confidence vote he will be out of a job, and a contest to replace him will begin.

Boris Johnson Exit Date

-140

2024 or later

+150

2023

+575

Odds courtesy of BetOnline

Sunday 5

Trump Could Announce Run This Summer - Former US President Donald Trump hasn't made a final decision about running in 2024, but some advisers say he could set a bid in motion as early as this summer, according to NBC News.

Many advisors say he should wait until after the November mid-terms.  Others say, why wait?

"I’ve laid out my case on why I think he should do it," said longtime Trump adviser Jason Miller, who traveled with the former president to a rally in Wyoming over Memorial Day weekend. "I think that there being clarity about what his intentions are [is important] so he can start building that operation while it’s still fresh in people’s minds and they’re still active — a lot of that can be converted into 2024 action."

While still early, the gambling sites have Trump as the -120 favorite to get the GOP nomination, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 3-1 odds.

Trump is also the slight favorite at +250 to become President again, with current President Joe Biden at 3-1 odds.  Even with low approval numbers, Biden's price is relatively low considering many believe he will opt not to run again.

May

Wednesday 25

Recount Coming for PA GOP Senate Primary - With a 902-vote lead for Dr. Mehmet Oz, the Pennylvania GOP Senate race is heading for a recount.  This was announced by the commonwealth's elections chief on Wednesday.  And this means that most books will not be paying out on the GOP Senate race until the recount is complete.  The odds, however, are pretty good that Dr. Oz bets will ultimately be winners.

Oz, who is endorsed by former President Donald Trump, led former hedge fund CEO McCormick in the final vote tally by less than half a percentage point, triggering the recount.

The eventual winner will have their work cut out for them. Democratic Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman won his Senate primary race in a landslide.  He literally won every single county in PA.

Other than New Hampshire, Pennsylvania is the only other state where the Democrats are favored to win their Senate race in the November general election.

_______

Exclusive: Prime Minister Boris Johnson Pictured Drinking at Downing Street Party During Lockdown - Oddsmakers favor UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson leaving office this year at EVEN odds and that price may get shorter following photos appearing exclusively on ITV's website.

The four images show the Prime Minister raising a glass at a leaving party on 13th November 2020, with bottles of alcohol and party food on the table in front of him.

They were taken at a gathering in honour of the Downing Street’s then Director of Communications Lee Cain, with eight people pictured standing closely together, as well as the photographer.

Boris-Johnson-Raises-Glass.jpeg

Boris Johnson Exit Date

2022

+100

2024 or later

+130

2023

+400

Saturday 21

Labor leader Anthony Albanese Wins as Bookie Favorite in Australia's 2022 Federal Election - Pretty much no surprise here. Australia's bookmakers offered Labor leader Anthony Albanese at $1.48 to become that nation's next prime minister, with late money flowing for a change of government.

Albanese is projected to win the country's May 21 Federal Election, according to election analysts from ABC and multiple outlets. Incumbent Prime Minister Scott Morrison will be removed from power following weeks of campaigning which saw the cost of living and climate crisis among the key issues for voters. It is still unclear if Labor will form a majority or minority government.

Anthony-Albanese.png

___________

Smerconish: 'Biden Should Announce Now He is Not Running for Re-Election" - BetOnline has Biden a near -300 favorite to exit office in 2015 whether by choice or as a result of losing the election.

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Sunday 22

Monday 23

Tuesday 24

All eyes will be on Georgia this evening though the books have mostly pulled the odds as Brian Kemp is the YUGE favorite to win the GOP Primary for Governor, Herschel Walker is a huge favorite to win the GOP Senate primary.  BetOnline currently offers a number of early Senate election odds for November here.

ARCHIVES

Wednesday 18

  • The 32% Trump Factor?  Is there such a thing?  Tuesday's Republican Primary results suggest there most certainly is.  And it's potentially a YUGE edge for gamblers who tap into it.  CNN Political Commentator John King noted that, outside of two exceptions, the candidates endorsed by former US President Donald Trump won with between 30 and 32 percent, and there were quite a few of them.  The advantage likely comes into play for future races based on the number of overall candidates (the more the merrier for the Trump-backed figure).  32% may not seem like a lot, but it's enough to carry a candidate over the finish line in some races.   One of the exceptions, we would note, was Doug Mastriano for Governor of Pennsylvania.  He won the GOP Primary by a 44.3 percent margin with a total of five candidates running.  Mastriano though was smooth sailing prior to the Trump nod just days before the election.  That said, Mastriano was perhaps the "Trumpiest" of any candidate running outside of perhaps Idaho lieutenant governor, Janice McGeachin.  Not surprisingly, she garnered 32.2 percent of the overall vote.  Troubled incumbent candidate Madison Cawthorn lost his North Carolina Congressional race with around 32% of the vote.   While gamblers would be wise to avoid betting on David Perdue in the Georgia Governor's race, recent polls do show Perdue getting around 38% of the vote.  Brian Kemp, however, had around 54% with the race widening.  We could see Perdue fall into that 30 to 32 percent range next Tuesday.

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  • John Fetterman Carried All 67 Counties in His Pennsylvania Primary Win - WHYY Philadelphia reporter Katie Meyer says that Fetterman has been mostly campaigning ever since he lost his previous campaign.  He was not taking pact money, mostly small donations.  She noted that he speaks directly to voters.  Fetterman was all over cable news outlets during 2020 talking about Covid-19 mandates and many voters warmed up to the Lieutenant Governor when he expressed his support for legalized marijuana.  The GOP candidate is yet to be determined as Mehmet Oz -135 and David McCormick +370 remained in a statistical tie.  The Democrat was slightly favored to win the Senate race this coming November ahead of Tuesday's primaries, a concern being the more "fringe" Republican candidate Kathy Barnette beating out Oz and McCormick.  BetOnline had this race in a dead heat at -120 as of Wednesday afternoon, but the Fetterman performance was almost certain to boost his odds further so you might want to lock that price in now

Thursday 19

Ousted Madison Cawthorn: "It’s Time for Dark MAGA to Truly Take Command” - Former one-term North Carolina Congressman Madison Cawthorn says it's time to fight.  He blames the establishment for his being voted out of office despite just getting around 32% of the vote Tuesday and losing his GOP Primary to state Sen. Chuck Edwards.

Cawthorn's troubles were numerous though and blaming the establishment might not cut it.  The improprieties and bad behaviour included engaging in simulated sex acts on video....with a man (Cawthorn was not exactly the most LGBTQ-friendly person in Congress) and a pillow while naked and barking like a dog.  He was also prevented from boarding a commercial airline on two occasions fully armed.  He claimed to have been invited to a cocaine-fueled orgy by fellow Republicans.  Cawthorn made headlines for charges stemming from driving with a suspended license.  Images of him in women’s lingerie were leaked just days before Tuesday's election.  Hawthorn has been quoted as proclaiming “one God and two genders."

MAGA is a movement associated with the former US President Donald Trump and stands for "Make America Great Again".  The movement seems to have evolved beyond Trump however.  Dark MAGA, a term used prior to Cawthorn's promotion of it, is described as a post-alt-right aesthetic that promotes an authoritarian version of Trump in dystopian, and features Terminator-like images.

Next up is a host of Primary betting odds for Tuesday May 24.

----------------

 

  • House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy Fails to Secure Website - https://www.kevinmccarthy2022.com/ asks visitors to "Donate To My GOP Sycophant Websites" and features links to other GOP House members sites, or so it seems.  https://www.thelaurenboebert.com/ goes to a website that refers to the Colorado Congresswoman as a "racist, Qanon sympathizer" while https://www.elisestefanik2022.com/ features a blaring "LET'S KEEP IT WHITE: THE REPLACEMENT THEORY AND WHY I SUPPORT IT."  Set to launch May 20, the KevinMacCarthy2022.com website already featured a link entitled "Kompromat". 

    Odds on Kevin McCarthy Becoming Next House Speaker

    YES 2-1
    NO -120

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Current US Sentate Betting Odds

2022 US Senate Elections

Republicans

-450

Democrats

+275

U.S. Senate 2022 - Florida

Republicans

-1200

Democrats

+750

U.S. Senate 2022 - Georgia

Republicans

-275

Democrats

+185

U.S. Senate 2022 - Nevada

Republicans

-300

Democrats

+200

U.S. Senate 2022 - New Hampshire

Democrats

-140

Republicans

+100

U.S. Senate 2022 - North Carolina

Republicans

-1000

Democrats

+550

U.S. Senate 2022 - Ohio

Republicans

-1500

Democrats

+600

U.S. Senate 2022 - Wisconsin

Republicans

-400

Democrats

+250

U.S. Senate Elections 2022 - Arizona

Republicans

-200

Democrats

+150

U.S. Senate Elections 2022 - Pennsylvania

Democrats

-120

Republicans

-120

All Odds Courtesy of BetOnline

Friday 20

Trump Washes Hands of Perdue in Georgia - With Ex-Georgia Sen. David Perdue’s gubernatorial campaign on life support, it appears as if the former US President Donald Trump is backing out of his support for Perdue.  He is not expected to rally for the former Senator ahead of Tuesday's GOP primaries.  Perdue is down around 30 points in the polls against incumbent Governor Brian Kemp and has mostly gone dark on the airwaves over the last two weeks.  Bookmakers have removed their odds on this primary race. 

Trump is reportedly having second thoughts about giving future endorsements in general, CNN reports: It's not just Georgia, the Pennsylvania Senate GOP primary isn’t going Trump’s way either. His endorsee, celebrity Dr. Mehmet Oz, is still neck-and-neck against David McCormick with around 9000 votes still to be counted.

  • US Senate Georgia Republicans -275, Democrats +185
  • US Senate Arizona Republicans -200, Democrats +150
  • US Senate PA Republicans -120, Democrats -120
  • Ron Johnson to be re-elected in Wisconsin? YES -400
  • Lisa Murkowski to be re-elected in Alaska? YES -400
  • US Senate 2022 Florida Republicans -1200

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Tuesday 24

All eyes Tuesday were on Georgia and the GOP Governor's race there, even though that one is likely to be a win for Brian Kemp in a landslide based on polls. 

The real fight appears to be taking place in Alabama's Republican Senator race.

The Republican primary for the seat being vacated by retiring U.S. Sen. Richard Shelby in Alabama has become a bitter, high-dollar race as candidates jockey for the nomination, the Associated Press reports.

The three highest-profile candidates in Tuesday’s primary include U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks.  He initially had the former President Donald Trump’s backing.  Brooks was behind in the polls when Trump withdrew his endorsement but is now seeing a surge.

Katie Boyd Britt, Shelby’s former chief of staff; and Mike Durant, the owner of an aerospace company are the other two competing GOP candidates.

___________

Ahead of Tuesday's GOP gubernatorial primary race in Georgia, current Governor Brian Kemp appeared to be sailing to a YUGE victory over former Georgia Senator David Perdue.  Kemp would face off against Stacey Abrams, a former state representative.  She ran unopposed in that state's Democratic Primary.  The Republican was a -275 favorite, likely Kemp, to win in November while the Democratic candidate, Abrams, pays almost $20 for every $10 bet.

Kemp-vs-Abrams.jpg

- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com

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