NFL Picks – 2018 Week 16 Fade The Public Play

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

Going against the public worked in our favor again last week as we hit on two of our three fade plays for the second straight week.


The following article is courtesy of our friends at Bookmaker

The Raiders were getting a lot of love for their tilt in Cincinnati, especially after knocking off the Steelers the week before. But alas, the good vibes were quickly doused and the Bengals came away as easy winners as a 4-point favorite. Realizing Oakland’s struggles away from home we jumped on Cincy and the move paid off. In a game that got little attention, we faded the favored Bills at home against Detroit and eked out another win. The teams aren’t very good, and anticipating a close encounter we went with the points and came out victorious. Our sweep was ruined by the Niners, who upset the Seahawks at home.

Oddsmakers have set the lines for the Week 16 slate of NFL games, and now it’s time for the betting public to be heard. A return home has New England looking good to a majority of the early bettors with the Pats getting over 60 percent of the action despite laying 13 points to Buffalo on the NFL betting lines.

Let’s take a look at a few Week 16 games to see where money can be won when going against the public on the early NFL betting lines at

Week 16 Fade the Public Plays

Philadelphia Eagles ( -2.5 ) vs. Houston Texans

Have the Eagles rekindled the magic now that Nick Foles is behind center? That’s what a majority of the public believes following the Eagles’ impressive victory over the Rams last weekend. Philly flipped the spread in its favor after opening as a 1.5-point dog. The defending champs played perhaps their best game of the season and it renewed interest in the team’s quest for a repeat. And after watching how they responded with Foles at the helm, it seems hard to go against them.

But that was last year and things are different this time around. Philly was already headed to the postseason when Foles took control, leading the Eagles to upsets along the way and earning Super Bowl MVP honors. They need to win out just to have a chance at the playoffs this year. Houston was a 4-win team last season and we saw how things changed for them. Having their top players healthy turned the Texans into the No. 2 seed in the AFC, and winning games will keep them there. The Eagles were inspired against the Rams, but things change this time around with the Texans putting the brakes on Foles and Philly’s offense to snatch another victory.

Pittsburgh Steelers ( +6 ) at New Orleans Saints

It was a nice win for the Steelers last week, ending a few bad streaks along the way. The biggest was that three-game slide that nearly cost them first place in the AFC North. Behind a strong defensive effort the Steelers snapped that skid and beat the Patriots, 17-10, for the first time in six tries. Have they fixed the problems that plagued them during the losing skid? Who knows, but the Steelers are getting 65 percent of the early action as a 6-point dog against the Saints.

Proving they don’t need Drew Brees throwing for a bunch of yards and touchdowns to win a game, the Saints have emerged as the Super Bowl favorite. New Orleans throttled the Panthers last week, 12-9, strengthening their grip on the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Saints struggled to score during a three-game road trip, producing just 50 points total, but a return to the fast track of the Superdome should jumpstart them in a win.

Denver Broncos ( -2.5 ) at Oakland Raiders

Just a few weeks ago the Broncos were right in the middle of the playoff hunt after three straight wins put them at 6-6. Apparently they blew their wad getting there because an inexcusable loss to the Niners set them back and falling to the Browns last week ended their postseason dream. Denver hasn’t been to the playoffs since winning Super Bowl 50 and the questions regarding Vance Joseph’s job returned to the front-burner. Still, the Broncos got plenty of support on the early betting lines with over 80 percent of the action their way.

Fans have been disgusted by the Raiders play this season and they are coming off a shellacking at the hands of a poor Bengals squad. Still, the long-time rivals gear up for each other and Oakland wasn’t for off when the teams met the first time, falling 20-19. The emotion of another lost season will be too much for the Broncos to overcome, that’s why I’m going against the masses and taking the Raiders and the points.

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