NFL Picks – 2018 Week 10 Fade The Public Play

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

Just because everyone’s doing it doesn’t make it the right thing to do. Going against the public on a betting wager can get you better odds and a more lucrative payout. It doesn’t always happen, though. Last week the Kansas City Chiefs were a popular pick and they came away with an impressive win over the Browns. A battle between the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football gets the betting week started. Cam Newton and his mates are playing well and the Panthers are backed by nearly 60 percent of the early action. Coming off their bye, the Eagles are getting plenty of support for their Sunday Night Football encounter with Dallas. We’ll dive into a few Week 10 matchups to determine where money can be won when going against the public on the early NFL betting lines at

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Carolina Panthers ( +3 ) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Panthers are playing well and Newton has morphed into a quarterback who can actually direct a passing attack. That just gives them an added dimension to their offense and it’s shown, particularly in the last two games. Carolina ran up nearly 400 yards of offense against the No. 1 ranked Baltimore defense two weeks, leading to a 36-21 victory, and they scored 35 first half points in a 42-28 win over the Bucs last week.

The Steelers are always good at home and they’ve won and covered in their last two by outscoring Atlanta and Cleveland 74-35. We’ve also seen the Steelers make strides defensively by allowing an average of just 18 points per in the last four outings. This could be one of the better TNF games ever and it’s hard to go against Big Ben and his crew at home in a big game. While the public is favoring the visitors, I’m going with the Steelers to cover.

Buffalo Bills ( +6.5 ) at New York Jets

The Bills are having a historically bad season offensively, they change quarterbacks as often as some people change their socks, and yet they are still a favorite of the public for their game with the Jets. Go figure. It really doesn’t say much about the state of the Jets, who were outscored by the Bills last week. Those 56 percent who sided with Buffalo are counting on the Jets not scoring, and that’s a possibility since they went without a touchdown last week,

But unlike the Bills, the Jets have actually produced points in other games. Twice New York scored over 40 points in a game, and they added 34 against a decent Denver defense, so at least they’ve shown they can score. We haven’t seen anything from the Bills, and we don’t know who the starting quarterback is this week. Hell, Sean McDermott doesn’t even know. Sam Darnold has struggled lately, but he’s better than anyone the Bills run out there even with a depleted group of skill players. It may only take a touchdown for the Jets to win this one, and I believe Darnold will deliver, that’s why I’m going against the majority.

Philadelphia Eagles ( -7 ) vs. Dallas Cowboys

A prime-time audience got to see how stagnant and predictable the Dallas offense is in the Cowboys loss to Tennessee on Monday night. The good news for the Boys is that they play in a division that’s up for grabs. Washington leads the NFC East, but they hardly look like title material, leaving the door open. Dallas has visions of sneaking to the top and their acquisition of Amari Cooper was an indication of that. Now that they have their No. 1 receiver, Dak Prescott needs to feed him the football.

Any loss from here on out is likely the last straw for Dallas’ chances and you can expect them to change things up and for Jason Garrett to open up the playbook. There is talent on that side of the ball but Prescott continues to regress from his rookie form. The addition of Cooper is supposed to revive a poor passing game and the former first-rounder was targeted a team-high eight times last week with a touchdown. Cooper did his part, now it’s up to Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott to do theirs. I’m cringing with this pick, but I think Dallas will rise to the occasion with Garrett coaching for his job, and I will go against what 88 percent of the public is saying and take the Boys plus a touchdown.

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