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NFL Betting – Week 2 Wise Guy Picks

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:
Sep/12/2019

Overreaction is commonplace among the betting public. And that’s never more prevalent than early in the season. We’ve seen evidence of that on the early NFL betting lines with the New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins. Why these teams you ask? Well, the Pats and Ravens demolished their opponents last week, and the Fins were on the wrong end of Baltimore’s beatdown.


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When it comes to betting it’s always safe to follow what the wise guys, or sharps, are doing. It’s not always easy to see what wise guys are up to, but tracking the line can help you make smarter wagers. Sportsbooks pay close attention to wise guys and they can influence a betting line. When wise guys play, the books are watching. And so should you. Following sharp action can be profitable, like it was last week when a few games we were tracking paid off.

Let’s take a look at some games on the Week 2 schedule where the sharps have impacted the line. And remember, BookMaker will have spreads and totals for every NFL matchup during the 2019 season. Visit BookMaker.eu when you’re ready to throw down on your favorite NFL team.

NFL Week 2 Wise Guy Picks

New England Patriots ( -19, 47.5 ) at Miami Dolphins

I said it last week, I’m saying it again this week, and I’ll probably say it every week during the season. The Dolphins have their sights on 2020 and this year is just a means to an end. We knew Miami was going to struggle this year and that was clearly evident in last week’s humiliating 59-10 loss to Baltimore. Now the defending champs are coming to town after blowing up Pittsburgh on Sunday night.

Squares typically don’t move the line a bunch and it’s not like the 15-point opening spread was too small. But to see a 4-point spike is a sign that wise guys are backing the Pats. And so is the public with over 50 percent of the action on the visitors. Surprisingly the Fins are 5-1 straight up and ATS in their last six home dates with New England, but the money says the Pats are the team to go with.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans ( -9.5, 44 )

At least Blake Bortles was durable. The former QB never missed a game due to injury with the Jags, but he never progressed enough for the team to stick with him. Now, before the new-look offense had a chance to show what it can do, Nick Foles is out with an injury. We saw the line move for this AFC South tilt, but it wasn’t because the Jags were bet down. When the line hit the board at Houston -8, the public jumped on the visitors. The Jags are still getting a majority of the action and the line went against the public, a sign that sharp action is on the Texans.

Rookie Gardner Minshew takes over as the starter and he played well last week in relief, completing 22 of 25 for 275 yards and a touchdown. The Jags’ point total in the 40-26 loss matched the most scored in any of their final 12 games last season. The offense was sharp, however, the defense was shredded for nearly 500 yards by the Chiefs. Deshaun Watson is salivating over the chance to put up big numbers in this one.

Buffalo Bills ( -1.5, 43.5 ) at New York Giants

The wise guys are fading the Giants after they were rocked 35-17 in Dallas last week. This game opened as a tossup at BookMaker and the G-Men got plenty of support from the public on the initial line. However, the sharps are thinking Buffalo’s defense will contain Eli Manning and that Josh Allen will have a big day against a defense that allowed Dak Prescott to throw for 405 yards and the Cowboys to amass nearly 500 total yards.

Even with the Giants getting public backing, the spread rose in favor of the Bills by 1.5-points. Buffalo has played more games inside MetLife Stadium than the Giants after rallying for a 17-16 win over the Jets last week. It can’t be easy to make the same road trip in consecutive weeks, but at least the Bills are used to it. They played crappy football for three quarters, exploding for a pair of touchdowns in the fourth. The ground game was strong with 128 yards, and Allen looked improved as a passer. I can see why sharps are backing the Bills in this one.

Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today.

- All plays courtesy of Bookmaker.eu

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