NFL Betting – Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

Thursday Night Football will be played on ... Monday night. That’s right, COVID played with the NFL schedule forcing a number of games to be moved. The Week 6 contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills was originally scheduled to open the betting week but has instead been moved to Monday since Buffalo just played a rare Tuesday night game. Teams need to be flexible and this is a good example. And there is a little more urgency for the AFC elites after they both suffered awful losses falling from the unbeaten ranks.  Bookmaker.eu is offering a generous welcome bonus (max bonus $1000)

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Date and Time: Monday, October 19, 2020, 5 p.m. ET
Location: Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
NFL Odds: Kansas City -3.5, O/U 57.5
Chiefs at Bills TV Coverage: FOX/NFL Network

Odds Analysis

Both teams look to rebound after taking their first loss of the season in Week 5. The Chiefs at one point led the Raiders 21-10 before the defense caved, losing 40-32 as an 11-point favorite. KC dropped to 3-2 ATS. After facing double-digit lines in the previous two games the Chiefs opened as a 3.5-point road favorite against the Bills. There has been no movement since the spread hit the board. Buffalo surrendered six touchdowns in its 42-16 loss at Tennessee, but the blame isn’t all on the defense. Turnovers and spotty special teams play led to short fields, which the Titans capitalized on. The Bills lost outright as a 3-point fave falling to 3-2 ATS. Buffalo surpassed the closing total and the OVER is 4-0-1 in their games. The total was wagered down to 57.5 after opening at 58. Expect more movement on this number as the week progresses.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs boast a top-10 offense ranking eighth in scoring, fourth in passing and third in total yards. However, the group hasn’t looked like the well-oiled machine we’ve seen in the past, experiencing long stretches of ineffectiveness in games against the Chargers and Patriots. That lull caught up with them last week. It’s hard to be critical after scoring 32 points, but the Chiefs were blanked in the third quarter and didn’t get their first points of the second half until late in the fourth.

More alarming for the group is the play of the offensive line. Las Vegas got constant pressure rushing only four. Mahomes did throw for 340 yards with the team trying to make up a second half deficit, but he completed only 51 percent of his throws, was sacked three times and tossed his first interception of the season. “We’ve got to go back and really look at ourselves in the mirror ... just execute the offense the way that it’s called and run the way it’s supposed to be run. If we do that, we’ll be a hard team to stop,” Mahomes said.

The defense needs to get back on track as well. A solid start to the season included shutting down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in a critical Week 3 win and holding the first four opponents to 20 points or less. The Chiefs had no answer for Derek Carr, who threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns. The Raiders amassed nearly 500 total yards and averaged 7.3 yards per play.

Buffalo Bills

If you’re going to play a bad game I guess it’s better to leave no doubt. The Bills turned the ball over three times, Josh Allen had a season-low passing yardage total with a pair of picks and the defense let Ryan Tannehill have a field day. It all added up to a 42-16 drubbing by a team that hadn’t played in two weeks. Nobody said it was going to be easy and the Bills are presented a good opportunity to show they are a top club in the AFC with a showdown against the Chiefs.

They will need to play better ... a lot better. A dynamic offense that averaged nearly 31 points through the first four games was responsible for the early season success. Allen silenced all the critics by scoring touchdowns and spreading the ball around in the passing game. The turnover bug caught up with Allen last week and continues to be an issue. He tossed a pair of interception for the first time in 18 games giving him three for the season along with three lost fumbles. He’s responsible for six of the team’s eight turnovers.

Those mistakes highlight a defense that’s struggled this year. Last season the Bills finished second in points allowed and third in total defense, but the numbers have plummeted in 2020. They currently rank 24th allowing nearly 29 points per game. They were down three starters last week and could again be without starting corners Tre’Davious White and Levi Wallace, and linebacker Matt Milano. That’s a problem against Mahomes and the Chiefs offense.

Bet Chiefs at Bills at BookMaker.eu

The Chiefs just haven’t played a lot of bad games since Mahomes took over. He doesn’t play defense, but that group was solid in the first four games. Buffalo has holes that were exposed by the Titans and KC can absolutely do the same. The total is up there but I do see points scored in a Chiefs cover.

NFL Score Prediction: Chiefs 32, Bills 26

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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