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These are today's biggest stories shaping the prediction market industry Thursday, July 23, 2026.
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CME CEO Says Sports Prediction Markets Are Gambling, Expects Supreme Court Fight
Thursday July 23, 2026 (1:44 pm EDT)
The head of one of the world’s largest financial exchange operators, CME Group, says sports event contracts amount to gambling and predicts the issue will eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court. Terrence Duffy said plainly that many sports-related prediction contracts amount to wagering rather than legitimate financial trading. “A lot of these prediction markets on sports are gambling. And I think that, that is going to find its way to the Supreme Court,” Duffy said. He added that some of these contracts, particularly small parlay-style listings, are “susceptible to manipulation” and don’t function as real markets.
FIFA, Gambling Watchdog Battle Over World Cup Betting Concerns
Thursday July 23, 2026 (1:41 pm EDT)
FIFA reported no suspicious betting during the 2026 World Cup, but an independent group issued seven betting alerts one day later. A Polymarket market involving Folarin Balogun’s suspension drew special attention because it opened before FIFA confirmed his status. The Group of Copenhagen estimates bettors wagered around $240 billion on the tournament, about twice the total from the 2022 World Cup. (read more from The Sports Geek)
LeBron James’ Free Agency Fuels Boom on Prediction Markets
Thursday July 23, 2026 (1:36 pm EDT)
Prediction markets have amassed more than $245M in trading volume on where LeBron James will play next, including more than $200M “alone on Kalshi,” according to Rick Maese of the WASHINGTON POST. James is not the first athlete whose free agency has become tradable, but his prolonged decision has “pushed the practice into a new frontier, turning a private personnel choice into a market with the scale and volatility more commonly associated with a presidential election or championship game.” Traders also can put money on whether James “will announce his decision before Sunday; which conference he will join; whether his next contract will be worth more than $12.5 million; and even who will break the news of his landing spot.” Currently, BetOnline has the Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers as top favorites to land LeBron James.
Former CFTC Commissioner Brian Quintenz on the Role of Prediction Markets in Elections
Thursday July 23, 2026 (12:53 pm EDT)
Brian Quintenz, former CFTC commissioner, Kalshi board member and Coalition for Prediction Markets senior advisor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss how prediction markets should be used, the role of prediction markets in elections, regulating prediction markets, and more.
Horsford and Amodei Introduce Bipartisan Bill to Ban Sports Prediction Market Contracts and Protect Jobs
Thursday July 23, 2026 (12:40 pm EDT)
Congressman Steven Horsford (NV-04) and Congressman Mark Amodei (NV-02) introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, a bipartisan bill stop federally regulated trading platforms from offering sports betting and casino-style gambling under the guise of financial products. The legislation makes clear that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees legitimate financial markets - not sportsbook-style gambling or casino games. It closes a federal loophole that allows companies to bypass the licensing requirements, consumer protections, tax obligations, and regulatory oversight that apply to legal gaming operators. Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA), John Curtis (R-UT), and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) introduced companion legislation in March 2026. "This is about protecting jobs, protecting consumers, and protecting the integrity of our gaming industry," Rep. Horsford explained. "Nevada has always been the gold standard for gaming regulations. These companies are exploiting a federal loophole that allows them to effectively sidestep state oversight that every other legal sportsbook must follow. They've already cost states over $1 billion in lost gaming tax revenue money that should have gone toward funding schools, roads, and critical programs. That's why I introduced this bill to close the loophole, hold these companies to the same standard, and protect Nevadans."
Kalshi Launches Election Hub for Prediction Markets Ahead of Midterms
Thursday July 23, 2026 (12:30 pm EDT)
Prediction market platform Kalshi launched a central page for viewers of its prediction markets to see how speculators believe the midterm elections will play out. Visitors to the “Midterms Hub” will see a map showing what traders think the odds are in individual races for both the Senate and House of Representatives. Kalshi in a press release said three-quarters of all visitors to the platform come just to see the odds on individual events but don’t trade.
Pennsylvania Bill Would Ban Insider Trading On Prediction Markets
Thursday July 23, 2026 (12:30 pm EDT)
State Rep. Tarik Khan, D-Philadelphia, has garnered bipartisan support to introduce House Bill 2711, which aims to ban insider trading and implement consumer protections for prediction markets. House Bill 2711 would create a regulatory framework for prediction markets without imposing a state tax on prediction market operators. If HB 2711 were enacted in its current form, Pennsylvania would effectively recognize and regulate prediction markets without collecting direct tax revenue from the operators. Regulated sportsbooks in the commonwealth currently pay a 36% state tax on sports betting revenue. These gambling companies have invested hundreds of millions of dollars to obtain licenses and comply with Pennsylvania gaming laws.
Prediction Markets Are Minting a New Type of Insider Trader
Thursday July 23, 2026 (12:30 pm EDT)
Prediction markets like Polymarket have inadvertently minted a new class of insider trader, with a recent Bloomberg investigation revealing roughly $200 million in suspicious, highly accurate wagers between August 2025 and June 2026. “A Bloomberg review found that at least 34,000 trades on Polymarket between August 2025 and June 2026 were flagged as potential insider trades.”, as noted by Bloomberg News.These suspicious traders exploit nonpublic information regarding celebrity news, geopolitics, and military actions, such as spikes in bets surrounding operations in Iran and Venezuela Bloomberg. “The surge was largely driven by wagers tied to military action. Flagged trading volume spiked as US military operations began in Venezuela and Iran, and bets related to geopolitics have remained elevated.”, as detailed in a post by LinkedIn. (read more at Bloomberg)
- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com
