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NFL Betting – Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:
Oct/05/2020

What could be worse than blowing a double-digit fourth quarter lead in consecutive games? Well, losing a third in that manner would be up there, but waiting an extra day to try and recover from that disaster is equally painful. The only game on the Week 4 betting schedule that pits a winless team against an unbeaten takes place on Monday Night Football when the 0-3 Atlanta Falcons visit the 3-0 Green Bay Packers. The Falcons are kicking themselves after squandering big leads the last two weeks, putting Dan Quinn on the hotter seat. The Falcons are getting 6.5-points on the current NFL betting line as they attempt to enter the win column for the first time.  Bookmaker.eu is offering a generous welcome bonus (max bonus $1000).


Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
Date and Time: Monday, October 5, 2020, 8:50 p.m. ET
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
NFL Odds: Packers -6.5, O/U 56.5
Falcons at Packers TV Coverage: ESPN

Odds Analysis

You could chalk up one blown fourth quarter lead to chance, it happens occasionally to the best of them. But two in a row is becoming a trend that’s hard to overlook. Oh, and there’s that biggest blown lead of them all in the Super Bowl a few years ago. The Falcons opened as a 6-point dog with a majority of early action on the Packers pushing the line up to +6.5. I guess the key here is that no deficit is too large when facing Atlanta. The Bears of all teams scored three touchdowns in the final 6:20 last week to drop Atlanta to 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS. Green Bay is on fire in the early going taking down New Orleans 37-30 last week as a 3.5-point dog. Going back to last season and including the playoffs, the Packers are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. They’ve also won the last three against the Falcons in Lambeau.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons made NFL history, but not the kind they really want to be remembered for. According to one source they became the first team to lose twice in the same season when holding a lead of 15 or more points in the fourth quarter. That’s something that will be tough to overcome knowing in the back of your mind that it can happen. Maybe the strategy should be to fall behind Green Bay and use their explosive offense to flip the script.

It will help having Julio Jones back in the lineup. Without his top target last week Matt Ryan had a pedestrian day against the Bears throwing for 238 yards and a touchdown. Ryan has thrown for 961 yards and seven touchdowns on the year for the seventh-best scoring offense in the NFL. A good sign was seeing some life in the running game. Todd Gurley had his best game as a Falcon rushing for 80 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. As a team the Falcons totaled 144 yards, which was just 41 yards less than what they totaled in the first two games combined.

Curious play calling and a leaky defense hindered the club last week. With a chance to run time off the clock and holding a 16-point lead, the Falcons opted to throw the football and did neither. Giving the Bears a chance, the defense crumbled allowing three touchdowns in the final six and a half minutes. The defense took a hit with Darqueze Dennard put on IR and Grady Jarrett dealing with a sore hip. Not a good sign against the NFL’s highest scoring team.

Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers is showing no signs of slowing down getting the Packers off to an impressive start. Of course that’s nothing new for the two-time league MVP. And this week he faces one of his favorite opponents. Rodgers outgunned Drew Brees last week throwing for 283 yards and three touchdowns in the victory. With Davante Adams nursing a bad hammy, Allen Lazard stepped up with 146 receiving yards and a score on six catches.

Right after his breakout game Lazard had surgery on a core muscle injury putting him on the shelf indefinitely. There is possibly good news with Adams returning to practice this week, but the team is taking a wait-and-see approach. If those two are unavailable Rodgers has limited options in the passing game. Marquez Valdes-Scantling was the only wide receiver besides Lazard to have a catch last week.

We’ll probably see a lot of Aaron Jones against the NFL’s worst scoring defense. The league’s second-leading rusher has totaled 398 scrimmage yards, second to only Alvin Kamara in that category. The Packers have been generous defensively as well allowing 28.3 points and 362 yards per game. One thing the Packers haven’t done this season is turn the ball over. They are the only team in the league without a giveaway through three weeks.

Bet Falcons at Packers at BookMaker.eu

The teams have played high scoring games in the past and there’s a good chance we get another. The over cashed in each of the last five meetings with a closing total of at least 50.5 each time. The number is the highest on the Week 4 board at 56.5 and the way they fly up and down the field it’s tempting to lean that way. However, with the Packers thin at receiver the total is too high for my liking.

NFL Score Prediction: Packers 28, Falcons  24

Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today.

- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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