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The public was all over the Astros in their game hosting the visiting Twins Monday for this first of the week's series. We probably won't be fading the public this night and here's why.
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What We Like:
- Books have made the Houston line more enticing by moving off -180 to -166 even with most action on Astros
- While the Astros are one of the better teams in Major League Baseball (13-8), these Twins have just one win less at 12-7)
- Minnesota is a solid road team, winning seven of their last ten away games
- The Twins belted 11 homers in a doubleheader sweep Saturday at Baltimore
What We Don't Like:
- Houston has won seven of the last ten meetings
- The home team has won the last five (Houston 3 and Minnesota 2)
- Minnesota is just 3-12 in the last 15 meetings
Astros were at -166 to -175, so this is above our price range of -160 if we were going to back Houston.
Bovada has dropped this line from -190 to -170 and overall we've seen between a 10 to 20 point drop in this line.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Twins RH Jake Odorizzi (1-2, 4.76 ERA) vs. Astros RH Brad Peacock (2-0, 3.94)
Odorizzi earned his first victory of the season last Wednesday, limiting Toronto to one run on six hits with six strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings of a 4-1 victory. The 29-year-old Illinois native yielded eight runs (seven earned) across 5 1/3 frames in his previous two starts, but has held opponents to a .172 batting average overall. Alex Bregman is 2-for-3 with a homer versus Odorizzi, who is 3-1 with a 2.12 ERA in five career starts against the Astros after splitting two decisions in 2018.
Peacock returns to the rotation after two straight outings in relief, one of which ended up as a victory at Seattle on April 12. The 31-year-old Florida native has permitted three runs (two earned) across 11 innings on the road this year and gave up five runs over five frames in his only home start. Max Kepler is 2-for-3 with a homer against Peacock, who made four appearances out of the bullpen versus Minnesota last year while allowing one run across 3 1/3 innings.
The Twins are just 1-8 in Odorizzi's last 9 road starts. That will stop us in our tracks from betting against Houston for sure.
- Tyrone Black, Gambling911.com
