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MLB Betting Picks July 11 – Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:
Jul/11/2019

The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers are probably asking why us. Thursday night’s matchup between AL West foes is the only one the MLB schedule as teams return to work after the All-Star break.


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The Astros dealt with a number of injuries to key players during the first half of the season and still managed to hit the break with the biggest division lead of any AL team. They have a 7.5-game bulge over Oakland with Texas 9-games off the pace.

Houston’s rotation is a bit unsettled with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole both pitching in the Midsummer Classic. A.J. Hinch will turn to Framber Valdez while the Rangers counter with Lance Lynn. The game can be seen on ESPN with betting options available at BookMaker.eu.

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Date and Time: Thursday, July 11, 2019, 8:05 p.m. ET

Location: Globe Life Park, Arlington, TX

Probable Pitchers: Framber Valdez vs. Lance Lynn

Opening MLB Odds: Houston -127, Texas +107, O/U 11

Astros at Rangers TV Coverage: ESPN

Odds Analysis

Considering what the Astros went through in the first half it’s quite an accomplishment to be where they are. George Springer and Jose Altuve both missed a good chunk of time and just recently returned to the lineup. Carlos Correa and Swiss Army knife Aledmys Diaz are still on the shelf. The top of the rotation is nasty with Verlander and Cole locking down spots. Wade Miley had a strong first half, but the bottom half has been a revolving door. For the Astros to think about a second World Series in three years, they may need to add an arm since Valdez isn’t the answer.

It was just about two weeks ago when the Rangers put finishing touches on a 5-0 win over Tampa Bay, their sixth in a row to climb a season-high 10 games over .500 and close within 4.5 games of the Astros. However, they ended the first half by losing six of eight to fall further off the pace. Lance Lynn is the guy the Rangers want on the hill to put an end to their little slump. He’s won each of his last four starts and five straight decisions.

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Probable Pitchers

Hinch has his rotation set for the final three games of the series, but there is some question as to who gets the nod on Thursday. If looks like Framber Valdez ( 3-4, 4.57 ERA ) will get the call for his fifth start of the year. Valdez started the season with the big club and was optioned to Triple-A in April. He spent less than two weeks at Round Rock before being summoned back to the parent club.

Valdez compiled a 3.12 ERA over his first 14 appearances, all in relief. He made his first start of the season last month tossing 7.0 innings of one-run ball against the O’s. He surrendered just three runs over 13.0 innings in his first two starts, but he hasn’t been as sharp since. He was rocked for eight hits and six runs over 3.0 innings by the Pirates on June 26, prompting a demotion back to Triple-A.

It looks as though Lance Lynn ( 11-4, 3.91 ERA ) is getting accustomed to the AL. After six seasons in St. Louis, Lynn made his way to the Twins last year before being shipped to New York. He had his worst season in the big leagues. Lynn has been quite the find for Texas leading the AL in wins with 11 thanks to a four-start winning streak. He twirled 8.0 shutout innings with 10 Ks at Tampa Bay on June 28 and closed the first half by allowing two runs over 7.0 innings to beat the Angels.

Over his last 13 starts Lynn is 9-2 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. For the season he’s averaging 4.73 strikeouts per walk to rank among the top-10. Lynn had a quality start in Houston on May 10 allowing three runs on eight hits. The Astros won that game, however, 3-0. In seven career starts against Houston Lynn is 4-2 with a 2.20 ERA.

Key Stats

The Rangers were embarrassed last time they faced Houston, getting swept in a four-game series while being outscored 33-11. Those games took place in Houston and it’s been a different story in Arlington. The first six games of the season series took place at Globe Life Park with the Rangers taking four of them.

Bet Astros at Rangers at BookMaker.eu

Playing without some of the stars we’ve had the chance to see just how deep the Astros are. They closed the first half winning seven of eight and they continue to pound the baseball. Lynn has been solid and he gives the Rangers a chance. They need to take advantage of Houston’s pitching situation since things get more difficult after Thursday’s contest, and I expect they do, though hitting the over is going to be tough.

MLB Score Prediction: Rangers 6, Astros 3

Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today

- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com Special Contributor (Courtesy of Bookmaker.eu)

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