Investigating NFL Running Back Props for 2019

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:

NFL running back props provide some of the best edge in the offseason because of the way running backs are used in the NFL and how their efficiency is almost always very steady. The biggest trick to determining running back production is attempting to predict running back touches. Touches = yards in the NFL and I think that it is one of the easier things to take advantage of here early.

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Sony Michel Under 1125.5 Rushing Yards

The Patriots drafted another running back to spell Michel to start the season and there are some underlying health concerns with Michel moving forward. I expect Michel to be productive in the offense when he gets the touches, but they are not guaranteed. Just this week, Michel sustained a knee injury that we do not have details on yet. I think that Michel’s injury history and the Patriots running back usage philosophies do not mix well.

For the last several seasons, buying low and selling high on Patriots running backs has been the way to go and that is what I am doing here. Michel is the highest priced Patriots running back by far and I do not need to be relying on them to ride him all season long.

David Johnson Over 1000.5 Rushing Yards

David Johnson was in a horrible offense last year with a horrible offensive line and he still finished with 940 yards rushing. This season, the Cardinals add run threat Kyler Murray at QB and Kliff Kingsbury at HC. While Kingsbury runs a version of the air raid, this does not mean that they will not run the ball. They will pass more than most teams, but they should plan on running enough plays to neutralize this move to the pass.

The addition of Murray should keep the linebackers and safeties a step slow to DJ, and I think this will allow him to have a few big games, something that he lacked last year. I expect DJ’s usage and production to improve from what was a pretty dreadful situation last season.

Nick Chubb Under 1175.5 Rushing Yards

I am all aboard the Browns’ bandwagon this season, but Chubb is one of the players that I am not attacking when it comes to this offense. I expect Chubb to be a great asset in fantasy with his ability to catch the ball in an explosive offense. However, I think that there are too many question marks to take the over here.

This rushing yard total would make Chubb RB4 last season and I think this is simply too aggressive for a player that could be sharing a backfield with two other NFL-caliber backs for points of the season. I like targeting Chubb in fantasy for touchdowns and potential, but I think the line here is a bit too aggressive.

Christian McCaffrey Over 1040.5 Rushing Yards

CMC is one of my favorite players in football and I expect him to have another explosive season this year. Last season, McCaffrey ran for 1098 yards and I expect something similar. Early in the season, McCaffrey was a limited runner due to his size between the tackles.

Going into this season, CMC has added muscle and should be able to bang in trenches a bit more than last year. I think that they will want to keep his touches down overall, but I don’t think this will happen in the running game. I expect DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel to have a bigger role in the passing offense, giving McCaffrey the ability to still have a massive impact in the run game.

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