Hot Team to Bet Right Now - Detroit Lions - NFL Week 8

Written by:
Don Shapiro
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This may be hard to believe but coming into Week 8, the Detroit Lions are paying nicely for gamblers with their 5-1 record Against The Spread despite being just 3-3 Straight Up.

The books probably want to make some adjustments in an effort to better balance the Lions ATS record.

Detroit is a -3 home favorite after opening at -2.5.  That is an overlay of two points based on the NFL Betting Power Ratings. 

Sagarin has Detroit at 20.31 plus a home field advantage of 2.70 while Seattle comes in at 22.16.  Hence, the line should be Lions -1 or even a PICK'EM.

Sagarin actually ranks Seattle number 9.

And here's why Seattle is likely to win and cover Sunday, according to

Right now, the comparison of these two teams in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings (explained here) is no contest. Seattle ranks 10th in the league, while Detroit is way down at No. 28. However, a big part of that gap is the Lions' Week 1 loss to the Jets, the worst single-game DVOA of any team this year. Take that game out, and the Lions' DVOA improves to roughly 14th. But that's still below the Seahawks.

What's making it happen for Seattle this season is, once again, the defense. Now, we all expected their pass defense to decline with the loss of Earl Thomas to a broken leg. And, in fact, that's what happened in their first game without Thomas, a 33-31 loss to the Rams. But in their last game, the Seahawks had their best single-game defensive DVOA of the year in a 27-3 win over Oakland.

So, yeah, Detroit has been hot Against The Spread, but this is probably the week to pass on the Lions.

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- Don Shapiro,

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