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You can bet the Giants-Padres game here where both starting pitchers have been solid but coming off bad starts. San Diego is -132 but we will hone in on the total here: 8, dropping down from 8.5.
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PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants RH Jeff Samardzija (7-8, 4.08 ERA) vs. Padres LH Joey Lucchesi (7-5, 4.27)
Samardzija yielded two homers in an 11-4 loss to the Mets last time out, giving up four runs and six hits over five innings to snap a three-start winning streak. He allowed a combined four runs over his previous three turns, including a season-high eight innings of two-run ball to beat the Padres on July 1. Manny Machado is 5-for-13 with a pair of homers off Samardzija, who has more wins (nine) against San Diego than any other opponent and is 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA at Petco.
Lucchesi is coming off his worst start since he was shelled for seven runs by San Francisco on April 9, lasting 4 1/3 innings and giving up six runs on 10 hits over 4 1/3 innings at the Chicago Cubs on Saturday. That halted a stretch of 12 consecutive starts with at least five innings pitched for the 26-year-old, who gave up three runs (two earned) over six frames in a loss at San Francisco on June 12. Buster Posey has one hit in eight at-bats against Lucchesi.
Only four games in the last ten meetings have stayed UNDER the current total.
San Diego has some of the best relief pitching.
San Diego has scored five or more runs in half of their last ten games overall. They have permitted five or more runs in four of their last ten.
San Francisco has scored five or more runs in four of their last ten. More importantly they have allowed no more than four runs in all but two of their last ten. They gave up 11 runs in one of those started by Samardzija.
The UNDER is 13-3 in San Diego’s last 16 overall.
The Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
We would note that the OVER is 6-1-1 in Samardzija’s last 8 starts overall.
Gambling911.com will be on the UNDER 8 here.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
