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Fade the Public, Yes or No - MLB April 22 (Podcast)

Written by:
Tyrone Black
Published on:
Apr/22/2019

Today we look at some key games in Major League Baseball to determine any possible bets that should be made.


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Possible Fades

Philadelphia Phillies - seeing between 60 to 70% of the action and they are the most wagered on side at some books.

Houston Astros - Just shy of 70% of action here.

Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles OVER

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals OVER

Phillies vs. Mets

The Fade Here:

Phillies

What We Like:

  • These teams have split wins and losses over the last ten if we are to consider fading the Phillies
  • Philadelphia is 3-7 at the Mets
  • The Steven Matz revenge factor

What We Don't Like:

  • Let's face it, Matz got slaughtered his last outing in Philadelphia on April 16.  The Phillies beat the Mets 14-3 in that one
  • Starters might not matter as New York has the second worst bullpen in Major League Baseball

The line on this game has moved from Mets +102 to -110 and Philly +100 to -102.  We've even seen Philadelphia -108 at some books.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Phillies RH Jake Arrieta (3-1, 2.25 ERA) vs. Mets LH Steven Matz (1-1, 4.96)

Arrieta recorded his second straight win on Wednesday after allowing two runs on six hits in eight innings of a 3-2 victory over the Mets. "I feel good and I've been able to spin the ball well. The timing of my delivery now is really good," said the 2015 National League Cy Young Award recipient, who has worked at least seven frames in three straight starts. Arrieta, who owns a 3-3 mark with a 2.33 ERA in 11 career starts versus New York, has handcuffed Amed Rosario (0-for-10) and Keon Broxton (0-for-9).

Matz pitched well in the three outings prior to the shellacking in Philadelphia, surrendering five runs on 12 hits while striking out 19 over 16 1/3 innings. The southpaw will look to regain that form when he faces the Phillies, against whom he owns an 0-3 mark with a 5.96 ERA in six career starts. Matz has seen J.T. Realmuto (4-for-10) and Maikel Franco (3-for-6, homer) enjoy success against him, although he has flustered Rhys Hoskins (1-for-10).

As long as the Mets have their relievers giving up a combined 5.47 ERA, we're going to continue to pass on them.

Twins vs. Astros

The Fade Here:

Astros

What We Like:

  • Books have made the Houston line more enticing by moving off -180 to -166 even with most action on Astros
  • While the Astros are one of the better teams in Major League Baseball (13-8), these Twins have just one win less at 12-7)
  • Minnesota is a solid road team, winning seven of their last ten away games
  • The Twins belted 11 homers in a doubleheader sweep Saturday at Baltimore

What We Don't Like:

  • Houston has won seven of the last ten meetings
  • The home team has won the last five (Houston 3 and Minnesota 2)
  • Minnesota is just 3-12 in the last 15 meetings

Astros were at -166 to -175, so this is above our price range of -160 if we were going to back Houston.

Bovada has dropped this line from -190 to -170 and overall we've seen between a 10 to 20 point drop in this line.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Twins RH Jake Odorizzi (1-2, 4.76 ERA) vs. Astros RH Brad Peacock (2-0, 3.94)

Odorizzi earned his first victory of the season last Wednesday, limiting Toronto to one run on six hits with six strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings of a 4-1 victory. The 29-year-old Illinois native yielded eight runs (seven earned) across 5 1/3 frames in his previous two starts, but has held opponents to a .172 batting average overall. Alex Bregman is 2-for-3 with a homer versus Odorizzi, who is 3-1 with a 2.12 ERA in five career starts against the Astros after splitting two decisions in 2018.

Peacock returns to the rotation after two straight outings in relief, one of which ended up as a victory at Seattle on April 12. The 31-year-old Florida native has permitted three runs (two earned) across 11 innings on the road this year and gave up five runs over five frames in his only home start. Max Kepler is 2-for-3 with a homer against Peacock, who made four appearances out of the bullpen versus Minnesota last year while allowing one run across 3 1/3 innings.

The Twins are just 1-8 in Odorizzi's last 9 road starts.  That will stop us in our tracks from betting against Houston for sure.

White Sox vs. Orioles

The Fade Here:

OVER

What We Like:

  • David Hess coming off a loss likely will pitch well here but the bullpens for both teams are suspect

What We Don't Like:

  • Both teams have two of the worst bullpens with Baltimore having the second worst with a combined ERA of 6.75.
  • The total has dropped from 10 to 9.5
  • Half of the last ten meetings have gone OVER the current total of 9.5
  • The OVER is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter

PITCHING MATCHUP: White Sox LH Manny Banuelos (1-0, 3.48 ERA) vs. Orioles RH David Hess (1-3, 5.57)

Banuelos is coming out of the bullpen to make the start in place of right-hander Lucas Giolito, who was placed on the injured list with a strained left hamstring.

Hess is trying to bounce back from a poor effort at Tampa Bay on Wednesday, when he was lit up for six runs on eight hits - three homers - in two innings to suffer his third consecutive loss. The 25-year-old served up a total of seven homers in 12 2/3 innings over his last three turns. Hess started at home against the White Sox last season on Sept. 16 and was reached for four runs - three earned - on six hits over 4 1/3 innings while allowing three homers.

Brewers vs. Cardinals

The Fade Here: OVER

Only two of the last ten meetings have stayed UNDER the current total of 8.5

The total has moved from 9 to 8.5 here.

St. Louis does have one of the better bullpens.

Adrian Houser is making his debut as a starter for the Brewers, so we will avoid a play on this game.

Nationals vs. Rockies (Bonus)

We have a total of 11 across the board and we do have to look at the OVER.

Six of the last seven meetings in Colorado have gone OVER the current total of 11.

Colorado started off the season bad but is 6-1 in their last seven games inching towards the .500 mark at 9-13.  Washington is at the .500 mark (10-10). 

PITCHING MATCHUP: Nationals RH Jeremy Hellickson (2-0, 2.63 ERA) vs. Rockies LH Tyler Anderson (0-2, 11.00)

Hellickson recorded his second win in as many starts on Wednesday after allowing two runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 9-6 victory versus San Francisco. The 32-year-old drove up his pitch count by issuing four walks for the second straight outing. Hellickson has split a pair of decisions in two career starts against Colorado, permitting eight runs on 11 hits in 12 innings.

Anderson is expected to be reinstated from the 10-day injured list on Monday after being sidelined since April 7 with left knee inflammation. "It's a lot better," the 29-year-old told reporters. "The fact that I can walk is a big difference. It was bothering me to walk and do normal activities. Now that we got the fluid out of there, it's much better." Anderson owns a 1-0 mark with a 2.50 ERA in three career outings against Washington, although Zimmerman has gone deep to account for his lone hit versus the hurler.

The OVER is 7-2 in the Nationals last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

The UNDER is 10-1 in Hellickson’s last 11 road starts.

But the key component here is the Nationals are coming into Colorado with the worst bullpen (a combined 7.41 ERA) and the head-to-head trends in Colorado really favor the OVER here.

Colorado has scored five or more runs in four of their last six games overall.

Washington has permitted six or more runs in four of their last ten games overall.

The OVER is 5-0 in Anderson’s last 5 home starts and 10-4-1 in Anderson’s last 15 starts overall.

We will be on the OVER 11 as a result.

2019 MLB Record: 5-3-1 (60%)

2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)

2018-19 NBA Record: 7-4 (63.4%)

2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)

2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)

- Tyrone Black, Gambling911.com

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