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The big move on Tuesday's Braves-Reds total from 8.5 to 9.5 is an indication that the books are trying to get folks to jump on the UNDER. Do we dare take the OVER here?
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It sure is tempting.
But first we do need to check the recent totals trends for this overall series.
Half of the last ten games between Atlanta and Cincinnati have gone OVER the 9.5.
Three of the last four played in Cincinnati have done so with another game landing on the 9.
Scroll down to see the pitching matchup.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Braves RH Kevin Gausman (1-1, 2.75 ERA) vs. Reds RH Sonny Gray (0-3, 2.79)
Gausman made arguably his best start since joining Atlanta at last summer's trade deadline Wednesday against Arizona, striking out a career-high 10 while allowing two runs on three hits over seven innings. The 28-year-old rebounded from allowing four runs across 5 2/3 innings in his previous start April 11 against the New York Mets by walking only one batter while throwing 67 of his 99 pitches for strikes without getting a decision, after Arizona rallied against Atlanta's bullpen. Gausman, who has posted a 0.76 WHIP and allowed just nine hits in 19 2/3 innings across three starts, surrendered eight runs over 2 2/3 innings in his only career appearance against Cincinnati in 2017.
Gray has yet to win in his first four starts with Cincinnati but the veteran has pitched well, giving up six earned runs over 19 1/3 innings with a 0.93 WHIP and 5.6 hits allowed per nine innings. The 29-year old, who is holding opponents to a .174 batting average with 22 strikeouts in 69 at-bats, struck out nine across six innings while allowing three runs on two hits in his last start Wednesday against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Gray, who struck out 13 batters in 10 2/3 innings with five hits and one run surrendered in his previous two starts, has lost his two career starts against Atlanta (2014, 2017).
In the end, we have to reframe from taking the OVER, and we explain why below.
The Reds do have the third best relievers in Major League Baseball, and this is evident in the fact that nine of the last ten games featuring Cincinnati have gone UNDER the total.
It's interesting to note that Gray is a good starter hungry for his first win. He could make it deep into the 7th. But then there is that solid Reds bullpen.
The Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter but are 2-10 in their last 12 games following a loss.
We do like that the books are moving this line from Atlanta +100 to -110 with most of the action on the Braves. This suggest to us they want more money coming in on Atlanta.
In the end, while we give Cincinnati a 55% chance of winning here, we'll stay clear of offering an official pick. They still have a losing record. We're just not completely convinced the Reds can pull this one off. If they had a winning record we'd probably be backing the Reds in this scenario.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
