April 5 Major League Baseball Trends and Betting Previews (Podcast)

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:

Two of yesterday's trend edges we posted came through, but it is the one that did not that has us kicking ourselves.



Blue Jays vs. Indians

Trend Edge: OVER

Yesterday we warned about taking the OVER and nearly (should have) taken the UNDER.

It was the Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez vs. Indians Trevor Bauer and the total went from 7 to 6.5.  That movement we suggested with result in 6 or fewer runs scored.

5 runs were scored. 

Bauer was pulled by manager Terry Francona after seven hitless innings and 117 pitches and sat in the dugout watching as Toronto's Freddy Galvis broke up Cleveland's bid for a combined no-hitter with a leadoff single in the ninth inning of the Indians' 4-1 win Thursday night.

Bauer was attempting to throw Cleveland's first no-hitter in 38 years.

Today we have a general trend of 7.5 to 7. This means we will avoid the OVER again.

Prior to yesterday, the average total in this overall series was 8.5 or greater.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Blue Jays RH Trent Thornton (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Indians RH Shane Bieber (0-0, 4.50)

Thornton was dominant in his first major-league appearance Sunday against Detroit, allowing only a pair of singles over five scoreless innings while setting a club record for the most strikeouts in a debut with eight. The native of North Carolina is getting a shot in the rotation due to Ryan Borucki's elbow injury that is expected to keep him sidelined until the end of the month. Thornton went 32-19 with a 4.23 ERA in 88 games (78 starts) in the minors, although he was only 9-8 with a 4.42 ERA at Triple-A Fresno last season.

Bieber is the Indians' fifth starter but only has worked out of the bullpen so far since Cleveland was given two early off-days. The 23-year-old gave up a run over two frames Sunday in Minnesota after going 11-5 with a 4.45 ERA in 20 appearances (19 starts) as a rookie last season. Rowdy Tellez (2-for-3) is among a handful of Blue Jays with limited exposure to Bieber, who beat Toronto in his only game against them last year after yielding three earned runs in 6 1/3 frames.

Yankees vs. Orioles

Trend Edge: OVER

This trend held up yesterday with 12 runs scored. 

We're off today with this series.

Red Sox vs. Athletics

Trend Edge: Athletics

This trend came through as well with a win by Oakland and the Red Sox are now 2-6.

This series is complete. Oakland won three of the last four and is now off to play Houston.

Boston takes on Arizona in interleague play.

Mariners vs. White Sox

Trend Edge: Mariners

Seattle comes into this game 7-1 on the season thus far.

They have won seven of the last nine head-to-heads versus the White Sox.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Mariners LH Yusei Kikuchi (0-0, 2.53 ERA) vs. White Sox RH Reynaldo Lopez (0-1, 9.00)

Kikuchi has received a pair of no-decisions to start his major league career, including a quality start in a 7-6 loss to Boston on Friday in which he allowed two earned runs and four hits while striking out five over six innings. The 27-year-old, who was 73-46 with a 2.77 ERA in eight seasons in Japan, started the Mariners' second game of the season in Tokyo. Kikuchi saw his ailing father for the final time during that trip and the decision was made to honor him by not missing any games.

Lopez yielded four runs, six hits and four walks across four innings while throwing only 50 of his 88 pitches for strikes in an 8-6 loss at Kansas City on Saturday.

65% of the early action was on Seattle.  The line is moving generally moving from -130 to -117.

We'll be staying away from this one.

Dodgers vs. Rockies

Trend Edge: Under

Five of the last six games in this series played in Colorado have gone UNDER the current total of 10.5.

Nine of the last ten in meetings have gone UNDER the current total of 10.5.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers RH Kenta Maeda (1-0, 4.05 ERA) vs. Rockies LH Tyler Anderson (0-1, 9.00)

Maeda allowed three solo home runs in his last start.

The total is just sitting at 10.5 early and simply does not appeal to us with these starting pitchers.

Padres vs. Cardinals

Trend Edge: Under

Seven of the last nine games in this series have gone UNDER the current number of 7.5.   The UNDER is actually 5-0 in the last five meetings.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Padres LH Nick Margevicius (0-1, 1.80 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Jack Flaherty (0-0, 8.31)

Margevicius made an impressive major league debut Saturday against San Francisco, allowing one run and three hits in five-plus innings.

Flaherty is looking to bounce back following a rough season debut against Milwaukee on Saturday, when he gave up four runs on seven hits over 4 1/3 innings.

Flaherty pitches better at home with a 3.35 ERA in 14 career home starts.

The number here is dropping from 8 to 7.5, so we do like this total movement (a half run down in the total).

The Cardinals are 1-6 in Flaherty's last 7 starts, so that's just enough to keep us off the UNDER here.

2019 MLB Record: 3-0 (100%)

2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)

2018-19 NBA Record: 6-3 (66.6%)

2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)

2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

Sports Handicapping News

College Basketball Betting – Iowa State Cyclones at Kansas Jayhawks

College Basketball Betting – Iowa State Cyclones at Kansas Jayhawks

Following their thorough pounding of Oklahoma on Saturday, the Kansas Jayhawks remain a game behind No. 1 ranked Baylor in the Big 12 standings. And with a game against the Bears coming up, KU is in a prime spot for a letdown for Monday night’s contest against the 11-14 Iowa State Cyclones. Kansas easily won the first meeting between the teams by 26 points and is currently on a 10-game winning streak. ISU won the last time out for its second victory in three games following a four-game losing skid. The series is split evenly over the last 14 encounters, but Kansas appears to have a big advantage this season.

NBA Best Bets - February 13, 2020

NBA Best Bets - February 13, 2020

From top to bottom are teams that have the best chance of winning or covering the spread based on recent trends for Thursday February 13, 2020.

NBA Best Bets - February 12, 2020

From top to bottom are teams that have the best chance of winning or covering the spread based on recent trends for Wednesday February 12, 2020.

Florida State Seminoles at Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview

Florida State Seminoles at Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview

Monday night’s ACC clash between Florida State and Duke features a high level of importance on both a conference and national stage. As two of the conference’s best teams, both the Seminoles and Blue Devils have the opportunity to break their current conference tie and move the winning team into sole possession of second place in the ACC. As their only scheduled head-to-head game this season, this will serve as a solid barometer heading into the final weeks of the regular season. On paper, these two teams are evenly matched and feature such a deep collection of talent that a down-to-the-wire game seems all but imminent.

NBA Betting – Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets

NBA Betting – Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets

A gargantuan battle in the Western Conference will send the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets into the All-Star break. It’ll also be a two-game swing in the standings between the top teams in the West. The Lakers lead Denver by 3.0 games heading into Wednesday’s showdown and both teams did what they needed to in advance of the third of four meetings this season. The Lakers beat Phoenix while the Nuggets overcame a 23-point deficit to knockoff San Antonio. The teams split the first two encounters with each winning on the road.