April 3 MLB Trends and Betting Previews (Listen)

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Apr/03/2019

So these past two days we have looked at some series with a few solid trends.  Some have since dissolved.


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Orioles vs. Blue Jays

Edge: Now Orioles

The Orioles-Blue Jays featured a hot trend with the home team having gone 8-2 (Toronto winning those two previous away games).  Over the past two days, Baltimore has managed to win in Toronto. 

The Orioles have now won six of the last eight meetings.  The home trend is no longer holding up.  If anything, Baltimore now has an edge as far as trends go. 

We also didn't want to touch the Blue Jays over -170.  Now they are anywhere from a -150 to -157 favorite. 

Don't want to touch Baltimore since it's hard to see the Blue Jays getting swept at home, plus that Orioles bullpen scares us.

Giants vs. Dodgers

Trend: UNDER

Yesterday's game did go OVER but the previous seven meetings between these two teams in LA went UNDER 7.5 runs.

The total opened at 8 at Pinnacle and has dropped to 7.  It's moved from 7.5 to 7 everywhere else.  That is a clear indication the books want us to bet the OVER. 

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants LH Derek Holland (0-1, 6.75 ERA) vs. Dodgers RH Ross Stripling (0-0, 0.00)

Holland gave up three runs and four hits with five strikeouts over four innings in Friday's 4-1 loss to San Diego. The 32-year-old native of Ohio is back for his second season with the Giants after going 7-9 with a 3.57 ERA in 36 games (30 starts) last year. Hernandez is 4-for-7 with a home run against Holland, who is 0-3 with a 4.56 ERA in seven career contests (five starts) versus Los Angeles - including 0-2 with a 3.07 mark in three starts at Dodger Stadium.

With Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill both sidelined due to injury, Stripling got the call on Friday against Arizona and pitched scoreless three-hit ball into the sixth inning. The 29-year-old Texan was named to the All-Star team last season and finished the campaign with an 8-6 record and 3.02 ERA in 33 games (21 starts). Stripling is 1-2 with a 2.86 ERA in 10 career contests (three starts) against San Francisco and has limited Brandon Crawford to a pair of hits in 11 at-bats.

We are giving the UNDER a 55% chance here but this is not an official pick. 

Mets vs. Marlins

Trend Edge: Mets

PITCHING MATCHUP: Mets RH Jacob deGrom (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Marlins RH Trevor Richards (0-0, 1.50)

This is a trend that has held up nicely over the past two meetings of this most recent series. 

Mets are just 1-7 in deGrom's last 8 starts vs. Miami and New York is a -200 favorite here so forget the Mets today.

Cubs vs. Braves

Trend Edge: Cubs

Cubs vs. Braves - Cubs were 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Atlanta. 

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cubs LH Jon Lester (1-0, 3.00 ERA) vs. Braves RH Julio Teheran (0-1, 5.40)

Cubs are 5-0 in Lester's last five starts vs. the Braves.

Braves are 7-1 in Teheran's last eight starts vs. the Cubs.

The UNDER is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings in Atlanta.

Six of these recent meetings went UNDER the current total of 8.5.

This one is generally trending 8.5 to 9, and with good reason, despite what you just read.

Both pitchers in their most recent starts for this series, there were double digit runs scored.

Lester had given up 18 earned runs on 23 hits over 15 1/3 innings across five starts.

Cubs failed to score Monday night yet they scored 12, 6 and 10 in their previous three games against the Rangers.  They have allowed 8 or more runs in their last three games.

Atlanta scored 4, 6, 1 and 8 runs their first four games of this season.

DO GO WITH THE OVER 8.5 - Still available some books.

More

White Sox vs. Indians - Corey Kluber is 10-1 versus the White Sox but the Indians are a -180 favorite here.  You can get them at -170 some books.

Minnesota vs. KC - The last five in KC have gone OVER 8.5.  9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams have gone OVER 8.5. 

There is some movement from 8.5 to 9 but not a lot.  This would typically be an indication that the books are trying to get us to take the UNDER.

Bovada is still holding at 8.5 and the action is balanced. 

2019 MLB Record: 2-0 (100%)

2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)

2018-19 NBA Record: 6-3 (66.6%)

2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)

2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)

- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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