April 12 Major League Baseball Trends and Betting Previews

Written by:
Dan Shapiro
Published on:

The Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins game featured a line of -153, down from -179. 


Phillies vs. Marlins

What We Like:

  • Phillies seeing better than 75% of the money line action at some books

What We Don't Like:

  • Line has dropped from as high as -179 some books to -153

PITCHING MATCHUP: Phillies RH Jake Arrieta (1-1, 2.77 ERA) vs. Marlins RH Sandy Alcantara (1-0, 1.50)

Arrieta answered a sterling start with another strong outing, but one bad inning in which he uncorked a run-scoring wild pitch and surrendered a pair of solo homers led to his undoing in a 6-2 setback versus Minnesota. The 2015 National League Cy Young Award recipient improved to 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA in eight career starts against the Marlins after posting a 2-1 record in four meetings last season. Starlin Castro (4-for-10, three doubles) and Curtis Granderson (10-for-32, three homers, 10 RBIs) have flustered Arrieta, although the 33-year-old hurler has kept Lewis Brinson and J.T. Riddle hitless in six at-bats apiece.

Alcantara followed up a stellar season-opening start by struggling to find the strike zone in his next trip to the mound, allowing five walks in four innings of Saturday's no-decision at Atlanta. "You can't pitch away from contact," Marlins manager Don Mattingly said of the 23-year-old Dominican's performance. "You've got to use your stuff. I really have to say it was a side step. At least it wasn't backwards. Not a step forward, a side step." Alcantara has kept the current crop of Phillies in check in his career, limiting the club to going 1-for-14 with five strikeouts.

White Sox vs. Yankees

What We Like:

  • 7 of the last 10 meetings have gone UNDER the current total of 9.5.  The UNDER is 6-1.
  • Both starters are coming off bad outings and Happ is desperately searching for his first win

What We Don't Like:

  • The total has moved up from 9 to 10

PITCHING MATCHUP: White Sox RH Lucas Giolito (1-1, 5.73 ERA) vs. Yankees LH J.A. Happ (0-1. 6.48)

Giolito took a no-hitter into the seventh inning in his first start but failed to get out of the fifth in the other, allowing five runs on six hits with four walks in a 9-2 setback versus Seattle.

Happ has yet to work out of the fifth inning in a pair of starts this season and has been taken deep three times, including once in a no-decision at Baltimore on Saturday.

The White Sox are 1-7 in Giolito’s last 8 starts.

The OVER is 12-3-2 in the White Sox last 17 overall.

The OVER is 5-0 in Happs last 5 starts overall.

Pirates vs. Nationals

What We Like:

  • Two decent starting pitchers coming off a loss or no-decision with six of the last ten meetings going UNDER the current total
  • The UNDER is 21-5-1 in Williams' last 27 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

What We Don't Like:

  • The OVER is 8-2 in the Nationals last 10 overall.

Six of the last ten meetings have gone UNDER the current total of 8.5.

Williams came away with a no-decision in his last outing as he gave up four runs - three earned - and seven hits over six innings versus Cincinnati. The 27-year-old fared better against the Reds in his season debut, scattering three hits over six scoreless innings while picking up the win. Williams is 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) versus Washington.

Corbin allowed three runs - all on solo homers - and six hits in six innings against the New York Mets in his last start. The 29-year-old struck out nine and walked one in his second straight turn versus the Mets - he gave up two runs and seven hits over six frames in his club debut. Corbin is 1-2 with a 4.75 ERA in six career starts against the Pirates and he been touched for two homers by Melky Cabrera (2-for-7).

Indians vs. Royals

PITCHING MATCHUP: Indians RH Carlos Carrasco (1-1, 7.71 ERA) vs. Royals RH Brad Keller (1-1, 2.84)

The total in this one is 7.5.

Carrasco became the first Cleveland pitcher since at least 1908 to record 12 strikeouts through five innings in Saturday's win against Toronto, doing so while allowing two runs on six hits and a walk. The performance was a huge improvement from his March 31 season debut in Minnesota in which he surrendered six runs and 10 hits in 4 1/3 frames. Merrifield (7-for-17, one home run) has thrived while Alex Gordon (5-for-35, 16 strikeouts) has struggled against Carrasco, who went 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two starts versus the Royals last season.

Keller turned in his third consecutive quality start Sunday in Detroit, but a lack of run support led to his first loss of the season despite yielding three runs across six innings. The 23-year-old Georgia native has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 turns and is 8-3 with a 3.00 ERA in 15 starts since last year's All-Star Game. Keller is 6-1 with a 2.80 ERA in 22 career home appearances (12 starts) and finished 1-1 with a 1.65 ERA in four games (two starts) versus the Indians in 2018.

2019 MLB Record: 5-2 (71%)

2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)

2018-19 NBA Record: 6-4 (60%)

2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)

2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)

- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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