2022 Week 1 College Football Recap: An Honest Look at How Our Picks Performed
The 2022 Week 1 college football games are pretty much in the books. Gambling911.com takes a look at how we did pickwise. Keep in mind we still have two more games on tap Sunday and Monday that should be good one's. We'd call this mostly a mixed bag, leaning more towards a losing week.
The Good
BYU vs. South Florida - One of our best plays of the week with the Cougars a -12 favorite and dismantling South Florida, 50-21.
We offered up this prediction:
"The Cougars will need to win big here as they have two very tough games to follow against Baylor and at Oregon. A few weeks later they will host Notre Dame.
"We would anticipate BYU to come into this one with a dominating performance and an easy cover."
"Beware here: If Texas Tech is a home underdog, history is NOT in their favor. They are just 3-12-0 Straight Up as a home dog since 2017. Houston on the money line, in particular, might be a good play here."
Charlotte vs. FAU - The line here was Florida Atlantic -7.5.
Gambling911.com had calculated the line on the Charlotte vs. Florida Atlantic game to be FAU -9.5 for a two-point underlay.
Our take:
"A good bet here would be on Florida Atlantic to cover the -7.5 spread, but if you can get them teased down six points, even better."
FAU easily covered the spread with a 43-13 win.
North Texas vs. UTEP - North Texas was a -1.5 favorite against UTEP and we told you to take North Texas at that number, having arrived at a PICK'EM.
We noted:
"In the official preseason Conference USA poll, North Texas was picked fifth and UTEP sixth.
"North Texas is just the better team here and we don't have to worry about a spread. Take the Mean Green here as a -1 favorite. We got this one before it moved the half point."
The Mean Green easily dismantled UTEP by a final score of 31-13.
Penn State vs. Purdue - The Nittany Lions were a -3.5 favorite here but we told you to take them on the moneyline at a decent price.
This was a good option, though Penn State did ultimately end up covering by a half point.
"`As a favorite since 2017, Penn State is 40-10 Straight Up (80%). As an away favorite, they are 12-5 SU over that span.
"Penn State looks like the better team here and you can get them at a decent price on the moneyline for an outright win just in case this ends in a field goal.
"We've seen the number drop to 3 but no lower."
We did arrive at an overlay of 3 points (Lions -6.5).
West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh - This one pushed for most with a line of Panthers -7 and a win by 7 points. We, however, had Pittsburgh on the moneyline.
We said:
"As an away dog, West Virginia is just 3-11 Straight Up since 2017. Consider Pittsburgh on the moneyline here as the price shouldn't be much over -200. Pittsbugh is 16-6 Straight Up as a home favorite over this time (72.7%)."
We arrived at a line of Panthers -4 coming into this game so felt there was a 3-point overlay.
Depends
Cincinnati vs. Arkansas - This one stung a little as it was one of our most highly touted plays backing the Bearcats as a +6 dog. They lost by a touchdown. Earlier in the year, one could have gotten the Bearcats at +7.5. But that was only a six-day period May 17-23.
What stood out here is that we arrived at a line of Arkansas -3 and the books also looked as if they were really pushing action on the Hogs.
Utah vs. Florida - The line was Utes -2.5 but we suggested taking Utah on the moneyline at a decent price to win outright. Instead, Florida won by 3-points in the final seconds of play. Hardly the worst prediction in the world, but we still ended up on the wrong side.
We also suggested an insurance play here that had Utah on the moneyline and the Gators covering the spread. Both plays nearly came to fruition, if not for Anthony Richardson's stellar play, which boosted his odds among the 2022 Heisman Trophy futures.
The double play was suggested since we arrived at a line of Utah -1.5 and -2.
Our focus was on the moneyline-only play and, even betting both, you'd still end up on the losing side with the moneyline price cutting into the result.
The Bad
Central Michigan vs. Oklahoma State - The line was -21. We arrived at a number of Oklahoma State -19.
Our take ahead of this game:
"Central Michigan lost way too many players in the transfer portal so it is easy to see Oklahoma State win this one by three touchdowns. We would also have to shade a little off last year's power rating, whereas Oklahoma State would stay mostly unchanged".
Oklahoma State won but they failed to cover. The Cowboys were victorious 58-44.
The Ugly
Oregon vs. Georgia - We got crushed on this one.
"With Oregon likely to see a significant improvement and Georgia losing some starters from last season, Gambling911.com sees the posted line favoring Oregon much more in terms of the ability to cover. It's easy to shave off a good 6 points from the line we would have arrived at last year to close the season (-21.6), and this puts us closer to Georgia -15. Then factor in the close games between the SEC and PAC 12, do take Oregon +17.5 here."
UGA beat Oregon badly here, 49-3.
Arizona vs. SDSU - San Diego State was a -6.5 home favorite. We actually arrived at a number of Aztecs -3 and an overlay of 3.5 points.
We said:
"San Diego State destroyed Arizona last year on the road, 38-14. The Arizona Wildcats are pegged to win just 3 regular season games in 2022. The SDSU Aztecs are favored to win OVER 7.5 regular season games. Do take San Diego State here at -6.5, keeping in mind that these big overlays are often favorable for the team that has the inflated line."
Arizona won 38-20. A true upset and a big loss for us.
NC State vs. Eastern Carolina - The Wolfpack we came up with a line of -12. The actual line was between 9.5 and 11.5 depending on when you got it. But The Wolfpack only won by a single point (21-20). We told you to take NC State -12 very early. Ouch!
Others
Illinois vs. Indiana - Indiana was a -3 home favorite at most books. The line had come down from -6. If you had Illinois +6, this was a win, otherwise the game pushed.
The Indiana Margin of Victory by 1-6 pts paid $350 for every $100 bet.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
