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The Pirates look to close in on the division lead when they host the Cardinals on Monday.
ST LOUIS CARDINALS (99-56) at PITTSBURGH PIRATES (95-60)
Sportsbook.ag Line: St. Louis +128, Pittsburgh -138, Total: 7.5
Both the Cardinals and Pirates have been playing well coming into Monday night’s game, as St. Louis has won six of its past eight games and the Pirates had an eight-game winning streak snapped in a loss to Jake Arrieta and the Cubs on Sunday. The Cardinals currently sit three games atop the NL Central, but that can all change this series.
The starters in this crucial matchup will be RHP Lance Lynn (12-10, 3.16 ERA, 159 K) for St. Louis and LHP J.A. Happ (10-8, 3.91 ERA, 138 K) for Pittsburgh. These teams have split victories in 16 meetings this season, but the Pirates are 5-2 when playing as the host. They are also 19-9 against the Cardinals in Pittsburgh over the past three seasons.
Favoring St. Louis in this game is the fact that the team is 89-42 against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. Pittsburgh, however, is 50-22 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 on the year.
As for some of the key injuries in this game, C Yadier Molina (Thumb) is out indefinitely for the Cardinals and SS Jung Ho-Kang (Knee) is out for the season for the Pirates.
Lance Lynn had really been struggling for the Cardinals before a terrific outing on Sep. 23 against the Reds. Lynn pitched six innings of shutout ball in that game and saw his ERA go down to 3.16 after it rose from 2.80 to 3.28 in his four previous starts. Lynn will need to find a way to put forth a solid effort against a Pirates team that really beat him up the last time he saw it. Lynn pitched just 0.2 innings in that start and allowed seven runs on six hits, although only three of them were earned.
OF Matt Holliday (.286, 4 HR, 34 RBI) will be looking forward to this meeting with Happ on Monday. He is a ridiculous 6-for-13 with a homer, five walks and three RBI in the head-to-head matchup in his career.
The other guys to keep an eye on for the Cardinals in this game are OF Stephen Piscotty (.313, 7 HR, 39 RBI) and 3B Matt Carpenter (.267, 27 HR, 83 RBI). Both players have been on fire recently, as Piscotty is 7-for-17 with two homers and six RBI over the past four games and Carpenter is 6-for-20 with two doubles, three homers and six RBI over the past five.
The Pirates and J.A. Happ have been a match made in heaven this season, as Pittsburgh has won in seven of his past eight starts with the team. Happ has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of those appearances and he’ll be looking for another quality start when he takes the mound on Monday. He was dominant the last time he faced the Cardinals, pitching seven shutout innings while striking out eight batters in a Sep. 4 game in St. Louis.
Offensively, OF Andrew McCutchen (.292, 22 HR, 95 RBI) will need to break out of his slump. He is just 3-for-22 over the past seven games and does not have a single RBI in those contests. He is also just 7-for-42 with no homers and two RBI against Lynn in his career. It will be tough for the Pirates to make up ground in the division with him struggling.
One guy who can be an x-factor in this one is 2B Neil Walker (.269, 15 HR, 69 RBI), who is 14-for-38 with two triples, three doubles, three homers and 10 RBI against Lynn in his career. He has his number and will be counted on to produce on Monday.
