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What day will Donald Trump's hush money trial get a verdict? And what will that verdict be?
Gamblers say the jury in the former U.S. President's case will finish deliberating Thursday at +170 (37% chance) and overwhelmingly believe Trump will be found guilty of at least one count at -335 (77% chance).
After six weeks and 22 witnesses, the panel of 12 Manhattan residents will decide if the 77-year-old will be the first former president guilty of a crime. He is charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree.
The jury returned on Wednesday to hear instructions from the judge before they were sent out to decide their verdicts.
The good news for Trump, who on Wednesday seemed to compare himself to Mother Theresa, BetOnline does not favor the former president going to prison.
The guilty verdict odds have fallen slightly in Trump's favor since Mid-April, down from 86% on April 15.
Polymarket, which does not accept bets from the U.S., noted that its Trump hush money trial verdict betting market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is found guilty of "falsifying business records in the first degree in violation of Penal Law §175.10” in the case of The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump by November 5, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Donald Trump’s case is dismissed, or ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, this market will resolve to "No". If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open to consider further retrials - if by election day Trump has not yet been found guilty or has not entered a guilty plea, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
Just shy of $100,000 has been bet on this market over the past month-and-a-half.
The Manifold odds are more for entertainment purposes as part of a social media prediction platform.
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