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The gambling public does not believe that the incoming Donald Trump administration will deport a large number of illegal immigrants his first year in office.
You can now bet on this at Polymarket with some $20,000 already wagered over the weekend.
Nearly half of gamblers believe the number will be somewhere between 250,000 and 500,000, or less than the least populated state in the union, Wyoming. Its population is 587,618.
President-elect Trump has promised to deport millions of immigrants in what would be the largest deportation operation in U.S. history. One cost estimate has his plan at $315 billion – that’s more than the government spends on most federal agencies. Roughly 13 million immigrants who entered the country illegally are at risk of deportation.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes less than 250,000 non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Thune: Republicans Have to Be Realistic in Regard to How Many Illegal Immigrants Will Be Deported
Sen. Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) suggested during an interview over the weekend that Republicans needed to have “realistic” expectations about how many deportations will happen, not just this year, but for the remaining four years of Trump's term in office.
Thune sat down with NBC News’ “Meet The Press” and was asked about Trump’s signature agenda item.
“Certainly there are categories of people who’ve committed crimes,” he said when talking about who should be targeted first for deportation. “There are over a million people that the current administration had targeted for deportation. And so I think that we have to take seriously the fact that there are a lot of people in this country today, over 10 million, who’ve come in just in the last four years under this administration’s policies, many of whom are not here for good reasons.”
“I mean, we know we’ve apprehended almost 300 people at the southern border that are on the terrorist watch list. And you’ve got criminals, and cartel members, and gang members, and all of the above,” he continued. “So I think that as we think about what those next steps are, the first thing is securing that border, and making sure that we change the incentive structure so people aren’t incentivized to come here illegally, which they have been for the past four years, and that we do everything to ensure that the border personnel, the ICE agents and border agents, have the resources that they need to do their job.”
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