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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to call a snap election on Sunday, with the vote anticipated to be held on April 28.
Carney, who took office on March 14, is anticipated to request the dissolution of Parliament.
BetOnline.ag documented the gradual shift in PM party odds over the last 2.5 months earlier this week. You can find the full timeline below.
The predictive markets show a clear picture that the first 58 days of the Trump Administration has had a negative impact on the Conservative Party’s chances to take the PM election.
The latest odds imply a 58.3% probability that the Liberal Party will be in power. When odds were first opened on January 7, the Liberals had just an 11.1% chance while the Conservatives were pegged with a 93.8% chance.
Here's a timeline of the odds:
Party of Next Canadian Prime Minister
January 7, 2025
Conservative Party -1500 (1/15)
Liberal Party +800 (8/1)
January 19, 2025
Conservative Party -900 (1/9)
Liberal Party +500 (5/1)
January 26, 2025
Conservative Party -500 (1/5)
Liberal Party +300 (3/1)
February 3, 2025
Conservative Party -300 (1/3)
Liberal Party +200 (2/1)
February 26, 2025
Conservative Party -200 (1/2)
Liberal Party +150 (3/2)
March 17, 2025
Conservative Party -120 (5/6)
Liberal Party -120 (5/6)
March 20, 2025
Conservative Party +100 (1/1)
Liberal Party -140 (5/7)
Canadian PM odds are subject to change and will be updated in real-time.
