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Prediction markets and offshore sportsbooks alike have been offering a bevy of betting markets pertaining to the Israel-Iran conflict ever since - and even before - Israel attacked Iran's nuclear facilities just over a week ago.
Now the US has been dragged into the conflict and the betting markets continue to expand.
Polymarket began offering a betting market on whether Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz last week with the chances increasing from 11% to as high as 47% over the weekend.
Iran's parliament backed the closing of the Strait of Hormuz after the US struck three sites in Iran early Sunday, inserting itself into Israel’s war aimed at destroying the country’s nuclear program in a risky gambit to weaken a longtime foe despite fears of a wider regional conflict.
Addressing the nation from the White House, President Donald Trump asserted that Iran’s key nuclear were “completely and fully obliterated.” There was no independent damage assessment.
The possibility of a closure of the strait is low, experts said, despite Tehran’s rhetoric around closing the strait. Indeed the chances dropped to 21% by Monday morning at Polymarket.
Iran’s top diplomat, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, warned in a post on X that the U.S. attacks “will have everlasting consequences” and that Tehran “reserves all options” to retaliate.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed that Iran had shipped 1.5 million barrels per day via the Strait of Hormuz in the first quarter of 2025.
Iran’s top diplomat, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, warned in a post on X that the U.S. attacks “will have everlasting consequences” and that Tehran “reserves all options” to retaliate.
Polymarket's betting rules for this market: If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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