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Two 5-3 teams - Wisconsin and Iowa - meet in Week 10. The Badgers come into this one 3-5 Against The Spread while Iowa is 4-4 ATS. The Hawkeyes have won three of the last four games in this series, all by more than the current spread.
Line Analysis and Action
- Opening Line - This one opened -4 Iowa
- Line Trend - The line has gone from -3.5 to -2.5, a rare move across the 3.
- Sagarin Number - Sagarin has a number of Hawkeyes 4.58. We do have an underlay here.
- Action - Mixed
Historic Comparables
- SMU +3.5 to +2.5 Maryland (Favorite Maryland Covers by 7) 4.64 Underlay 1 to 2 points.
- SMU +3.5 to +2.5 UCF (home favorite UCF covers big) UCF 10.96 Underlay in this case was pretty significant at 7 to 8 points.
But we also had this:
- Florida +3.5 to +2.5 Texas A&M (road dog Florida covers and wins big) Texas A&M 4.23 Underlay of 1 to 2 points.
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What's at Stake?
Both teams enter November looking to enhance their bowl positions. The winner is bowl eligible, and the loser has three more chances to get a sixth win. The Badgers had their three-game win streak end with their home loss to Penn State. Iowa is coming off a home win over Northwestern but is yet to win consecutive Big Ten games.
Key Matchup
Wisconsin run defense vs. Iowa run game. The Badgers have been uncharacteristically soft against the run, allowing 144 yards per game to rank 14th in the Big Ten and 4.45 yards per carry to rank 15th. Iowa's Kaleb Johnson is running for 143 yards per game to lead the conference and 7.84 yards per carry. The Badgers like their chances if Iowa has to lean on its dismal passing game.
Players to Watch
Wisconsin: The Badgers would like to get RB Tawee Walker going again. He amassed 418 yards in three straight wins (Purdue, Rutgers, Northwestern) before Penn State limited him to 59 yards on 22 carries.
Iowa: QB Brendan Sullivan. Cade McNamara has started every game, but he got pulled against Northwestern in the second quarter because of a concussion. This will be Sullivan's first start since he transferred from Northwestern. He gave the Hawkeyes a spark last week, completing 9 of 14 passes for 79 yards and running eight times for 41 yards and a TD against his old team.
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