Garrett Nussmeier Total Passing Yards Prop Bet vs. Baylor - Texas Bowl

Baylor and LSU will be meeting for the first time since 1985 when the two teams played in the Liberty Bowl.

LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier was coming in with a total passing yards Over/Under of 274.5 against Baylor.

Nussmeier ranks seventh in the country with 3,735 passing yards (311.3 per game) while completing 63.7% of passes (312 for 490), with 26 touchdowns (14th in CFB) and 11 interceptions. Durham has 125 carries for 694 rushing yards (57.8 yards per game) and six touchdowns. He also has 27 catches for 257 yards and two touchdowns. Kyren Lacy has 58 receptions for 866 yards (72.2 per game) and has nine touchdowns (17th in CFB).

Last Game

LSU won 37-17 over Oklahoma. Garrett Nussmeier passed for 277 yards on 22-of-31 attempts (71.0%) with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Caden Durham carried the ball 11 times for 80 yards, adding four receptions for 32 yards. Chris Hilton Jr. had two receptions for 85 yards and two touchdowns.

What to Know Before You Bet

LSU (8-4) has won two in a row after a three-game skid as the Tigers head into their third bowl appearance under coach Brian Kelly.  

“The game is such an interesting one in that momentum, belief, confidence, they all play a role,” Kelly said. “When teams are fairly equal — and that’s what the case is — all those things that I just mentioned play a role. You’re playing a team that believes they’re going to win. They’ve won games that they hadn’t won in a long time. They’ve gotten all that out of the way. So, that’s probably the biggest challenge.”

Opting Out

LSU will be without several top players Tuesday after tight end Mason Taylor, receiver Kyren Lacy and tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones opted out as they prepare for the NFL draft.

Taylor, the son of NFL Hall of Fame Jason Taylor, had 55 receptions for a career-high 546 yards and two touchdowns as a junior before declaring for the draft earlier this month.

Lacy led the Tigers with 866 yards receiving and nine touchdowns and ends his career with 2,360 yards receiving.

Line Analysis and Betting Action

The line on this game has gone from Baylor -2.5 to -4.

Sagarin suggests the wrong team is favored as they have a number of 1.82 for the Tigers.

83% of the money was coming in on the Bears.