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No. 11 Clemson, with just one loss this season, was coming in as a pretty big favorite hosting Louisville (5-3) this Saturday. The Cardinals are 3-5 Against The Spread while Clemson is 4-3 ATS. The Tigers have beaten Louisville by more than double digits in three of their last four meetings and have not lost to Louisville at all.
Line Analysis and Action
- Opening Line - Opened at Clemson -12.
- Line Trend - The line has moved from -11 to -10.5 and remained there as of Saturday morning.
- Sagarin Number - Sagarin gives us a number of 8.83, indicating an overlay.
- Action - Action came in at greater than 80% on Clemson for both tickets and cash.
Historic Comparables
- Mizzou +10.5 Florida (road dog Mizzou covers with Florida 7 point win) Florida 8 - Overlay of 2.5 points.
- Indiana +11.5 to +10.5 MSU (road dog Iowa covers and wins) MSU 7.54 Overlay 3 to 4 points
Tony Caliente's Take
"These overlays when the number is 10.5/11 tend to perform well for the underdog, not to mention action is greater than 80% on Clemson but the line has come down off the 12."
What’s at stake?
Clemson has been on a tear since losing its opener to then-No. 1 Georgia, winning six in a row by lopsided margins. The Tigers must keep winning as one of four ACC teams still undefeated in league play to stay on track for a return to the championship game. Louisville had hoped to be in the mix, too, but has lost to ranked opponents in Miami and SMU to fall off the pace.
Key matchup
Louisville QB Tyler Shough vs. Clemson's defensive line. The Tigers have taken advantage of opponents not nearly as offensively skilled as them to open big leads. That's unlikely to happen with the Cardinals, who are averaging 460 yards and 36 points a game. Clemson needs to get pressure on Shough, the Texas Tech transfer who's has four 300-yard passing games this season.
Players to watch
Louisville: RB Isaac Brown is a freshman who's run for 649 yards, second only to Heisman Trophy winner and NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, who ran for 960 yards as a freshman in 2015. Brown's yards are the most nationally among freshmen and his six TDs on the ground are tied for second.
Clemson: LB Wade Woodaz leads the Tigers with 53 tackles and eight quarterback pressures. He's also forced three fumbles and is tied for the top with freshman Sammy Brown with 6.5 tackles for loss this season.
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