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The Royals-White Sox Game 3 Wednesday featured an early line of White Sox -115 and Royals +105. The total was coming in at 9.
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What to Watch For
This is a tale of two teams. One one end, we have the White Sox with some of the worst starters. Their starters combine for a 6.69 ERA, second worst in Major League Baseball after the Boston Red Sox. Then we have Kansas City. They have better starters (Domingo German is among the best in the league). But they have the third worst relievers, combining for a 6.88 ERA. All of this should add up to a nice OVER no matter the total. Indeed, the OVER is 11-6-1 in Royals games and 10-6 in White Sox games.
Expected Starting Pitchers
Brad Keller KC (2-1, 2.45) vs. Lucas Giolito CHW (2-1, 6.19)
Keller is coming off a win in which the Royals allowed Cleveland to score a single run. While losing against Detroit, the Tigers got no more than three runs. We would be remiss in pointing out that Detroit has had a difficult time scoring runs this season. In four games Keller has started this season, only three have resulted in more than three runs scored.
Giolito is also coming off a win, another reason to consider the OVER here. The White Sox have permitted six or more runs in two of his three starts this season. The game he lost featured nine runs scored by the opposing team.
As for the overall series, half of the last ten have resulted in 9 or more runs, with three of those hitting 9.
It should be noted that the total opened at 9.5 and had dipped to 9. We would like to see a movement back up to 9.5 before considering the OVER in this game. Then again, the high scoring meetings between these two clubs have mostly landed on 9.
With both teams owning losing records, we won't consider the side in this one.
The game, while attractive on paper in terms of the OVER, is a turnoff due to both the early total number movement and the recent trend featuring the higher scoring games that fall on the 9.
- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
