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Nine of the last ten games in the Rays-Astros meetings have gone UNDER. The total is 8 and hasn't moved.
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Yesterday's game was a dramatic outlier from the recent totals trends, with 16 runs scored. The nine previous games have resulted in fewer runs than the current total of 8. In fact, the highest number of runs scored in any of those games was 7, and in only one of those meetings.
Houston has scored five or more runs in seven of their last ten, forcing us to stay clear of the UNDER. We also feel that Yarbrough and Cole (both) are due for rough outings. Even one of these starter having a tough time will result in a high scoring affair.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Rays LH Ryan Yarbrough (11-3, 3.29 ERA) vs. Astros RH Gerrit Cole (15-5, 2.75)
Yarbrough is unbeaten since June 13 and is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA in four games this month while striking out 28 and allowed just one walk. The 27-year-old Old Dominion University product gave up two runs (one earned) on three hits with five strikeouts and no walks over 4 1/3 innings last Thursday before his outing ended due to a rain delay after just 68 pitches. Jake Marisnick is 2-for-2 with a solo homer versus Yarbrough, who took the loss despite 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball against Houston last year.
Cole has pushed himself into the middle of the Cy Young discussion with wins in six straight starts and 11 consecutive decisions after tossing seven scoreless frames against Detroit on Thursday. The 28-year-old UCLA product boasts a 1.35 ERA in August and is limiting opponents to a .195 batting average with 238 strikeouts across 163 2/3 innings overall. Travis d'Arnaud is 4-for-4 with a homer against Cole, who gave up four runs (one earned) over six innings in a loss at Tampa Bay on March 29.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
