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When the total on the Astros-Red Sox game was set at 8.5, we had a situation where the OVER in the last ten meetings was 7-3 using that total. At 9.5, half of the last ten games went OVER that number.
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The move on this total suggests and OVER. The starting pitching matchup does not.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros LH Wade Miley (4-2, 3.51 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH Chris Sale (1-5, 4.24)
Miley's streak of 24 consecutive starts allowing three earned runs or fewer came to an end in Tuesday's win at Detroit after he permitted four runs on seven hits and two walks across six innings. The Louisiana native has struggled has been significantly worse on the road (2-2, 4.50 ERA) than at home (2-0, 2.31) but has won all three of his turns this month. Steve Pearce is 7-for-19 with two homers and five RBIs versus Miley, who is 2-2 with a 7.13 ERA over four career starts against the Red Sox.
Sale went 0-5 with a 6.30 ERA in six starts prior to May, but is 1-0 with a 1.29 mark in three outings this month while recording an eye-popping 41 strikeouts in 21 innings. The seven-time All-Star has surrendered 14 runs in 17 2/3 innings against the Astros over the past two postseasons but is 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA in seven regular-season matchups. George Springer is 5-for-14 with a home run and a double against Sale.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
