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In this clip from the BetOnline All Access show, Drew Butler and Gabe Ikard make their picks for Week 3's matchup of Wisconsin vs Ohio State.
Wisconsin vs Ohio State Expert Predictions w/ Gabe Ikard | @betonline_ag All... https://t.co/ZRN91ApPpN via @YouTube
— gambling911 (@gambling911) September 23, 2022
The line on this game has moved from -17 to -19.5. Using the power ratings provided by Sagarin, Gambling911.com gets a number of 12.5. That indicates a pretty hefty overlay of between 5 and 7 points on this game. Be careful though as these large overlays often result in favorites winning by a wide margin.
A comparable includes a game two weeks ago whereby Alabama was coming in as a -19 to -21 point favorite with an overlay of 7 to 9 points. Texas nearly won that game.
One should be especially careful here as Ohio State looks to go 4-0 Straight Up but would only be 1-3 Against The Spread with a failed cover.
The Buckeyes have won the last eight games in this series dating back to 2011. Only two of those were by more than the current spread.
Wisconsin dropped out of the AP Top 25 following a Week 2 loss to heavy underdog Washington State. They are currently 2-1 both Straight Up and Against The Spread.
Badgers QB Graham Mertz has completed 71% of his passes, throwing for nearly 700 yards with six touchdowns. Mertz also has two interceptions over the last three games. Last year, Mertz threw more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (10).
"He's working really hard on his craft to get better," offensive coordinator/quarterback coach Bobby Engram said of Mertz. "I think we talked about it in the spring. It's about the fundamentals of playing the position: dropbacks, movement in the pocket, accuracy and decision making. He's worked hard in each one of those areas. He's done a lot of film work.
"He's off to a good start. We just need to keep going."
Ohio State rolled up the second most number of yards in school history last week (763) versus Toledo. C.J. Stroud was very accurate in throwing for 367 yards and five touchdowns in that game while a total of three players totalled more than 100 receiving yards. Stroud is second in the nation in pass efficiency with a rating of 208.6.
Ahead of this game, Stroud has spent a significant number of hours studying Wisconsin defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard's scheme on film.
"I definitely think you can find tendencies in defenses from previous years that we played them and previous years that other teams have played them," Stroud said, via Bucknuts. "I’ll go deep into that and see what I can find with their system of defense and how they run their defense and why they run their defense, so I can have a better understanding of the plays we put in and why they might work and why they might not work in whatever situation. I’ve probably been watching a lot already.”
Greater than 60% of the betting action was on Ohio State.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
