Will USC Trojans Cover the Spread vs. Washington? We Say YES

Written by:
Tyrone Black
Published on:
Nov/03/2023

The Washington vs. USC game has trended Huskies -4.5 to -3.  We did see a book drop to -2.5 and immediately move back up again.  Action was 73% on Washington as of Friday morning with the number at -3 and was closer to 65% at -3.5.  This seems to suggest that books would like gamblers to back Washington and NOT the Trojans

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Diving Deeper Into the Line Movement

This week, Sagarin has USC (7-2 Straight Up, 2-7 Against The Spread) the 18th rated team in the nation.  Their ATS record suggests the Trojans are very much underperforming in 2023.  There still seems to be an overlay as we get a number of 0.93 as Washington is ranked No. 15 by Sagarin with their 8-0 record Straight Up and 3-4 Against The Spread.

Here we have a clear overlay of 2 to 3.5 points. In this line range of 3/3.5/4/4.5 without going below the 3, overlays in this range heavily go towards the dog based on our model. 

There is a strong lean on USC based on our own model and the early push by books to get action on the Huskies.

Washington May Still Win

As an underdog dating back to 2015, USC is 3-22 Straight Up at home.  They are a bit better Against The Spread over this span as a dog, going 7-18 Against The Spread.

The Huskies are 22-28-1 ATS as an away favorite dating back to 2018.

Recent Trend History

Washington has won two of the last three in the series but these were prior to 2020.

USC was hit with two consecutive losses before a win their last game.  Prior to that they had won six straight games.  One of the two losses was a blowout at the hands of Notre Dame.  The other, they were slight favorites but lost by two points to Utah.

Washington is yet to have a loss this season.

Washington vs. USC Game and Player Prop Bets

Over Under Passing Yards

Caleb Williams (Usc Trojans) Over(316.5)

Michael Penix Jr. (Washington Huskies) Over(369.5)

Touchdowns

Dillon Johnson

1+

-501

2+

+100

3+

+600

Rome Odunze

1+

-334

2+

+150

3+

+900

MarShawn Lloyd

1+

-251

2+

+200

3+

+1100

Caleb Williams

1+

-251

2+

+200

3+

+1100

Ja'Lynn Polk

1+

-201

2+

+250

3+

+1400

Jalen McMillan

1+

-167

2+

+300

3+

+1700

Austin Jones

1+

-126

2+

+400

3+

+2100

Tahj Washington

1+

-126

2+

+400

3+

+2100

Brenden Rice

1+

-126

2+

+400

3+

+2100

Jack Westover

1+

+120

2+

+600

3+

+3400

Germie Bernard

1+

+160

2+

+850

3+

+6400

Dorian Singer

1+

+270

2+

+1900

3+

+11000

Lake McRee

1+

+270

2+

+1900

3+

+11000

Zachariah Branch

1+

+280

2+

+2100

3+

+11000

Devin Culp

1+

+300

2+

+2400

3+

+12000

Michael Jackson III

1+

+325

2+

+2600

3+

+12000

Michael Penix Jr.

1+

+325

2+

+2600

3+

+12000

Mario Williams

1+

+350

2+

+2900

3+

+15000

Game Props

 3 Straight Scores by Either Team

yes

-501

no

+323

Team to Score First

USC

-102

WAS

-132

Any Team to Score 40+ Points

yes

-313

no

+220

First score of Game is Touchdown

yes

-345

no

+223

Will there be Overtime

yes

+800

yes

+800

no

-2000

Will there be a Scoreless Quarter

yes

+598

no

-1250

Time of First Score O/U 5 (mins elapsed)

Under(5)

-150

Over(5)

+111

Defensive or special teams TD scored

yes

+129

no

-173

- Tyrone Black, Gambling911.com

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