Latest Polls Show Trump Ahead of Biden, Gaining Younger Voters: Current Odds

Written by:
Gilbert Horowitz
Published on:

Gambling website BetOnline has former U.S. President Donald Trump +175 and current President Joe Biden +150.  Both are statistically co-favorites.


Recent polls seem to show Trump gaining more ground, especially among younger voters.

The Battleground States

National polls don't mean much as the electoral college will determine who the next President will be.  Case in point, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in the 2016 general election.  It was Donald Trump who would go on to become President.

And the electoral college as of now seems to be favoring Trump.

From NY Mag:

"The new Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls are squarely centered on the seven states that were closest in 2020 (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). The results show Trump leading among registered voters in Arizona (47 percent to 43 percent), Georgia (48 percent to 43 percent), North Carolina (47 percent to 43 percent), Pennsylvania (46 percent to 45 percent), and Wisconsin (46 percent to 44 percent). Biden leads in Nevada (46 percent to 43 percent), and the two candidates are tied in Michigan (at 44 percent). Taking the margins of error into account, Trump has small leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, and the candidates are statistically tied in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin."

Younger Voters

There's a common misconception that young voters tend to lean more Democrat.  The misconception comes into play when one considers the latest Emerson College findings.

"The October Emerson College Polling national survey of a potential 2024 presidential election finds former President Trump with 47% support, and President Biden with 45%. Eight percent of voters are undecided. Since last month, Biden has held his 45% of support, while Trump’s support has increased by two percentage points. Voters were also asked hypothetical matchups of Bernie Sanders and former President Trump, and Mitt Romney and President Biden. Trump leads Sanders 48% to 40%, with 12% undecided, and Biden leads Romney 40% to 30%, with 29% undecided."

Throw RFK Jr. Into the Mix

The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll, shared by The Hill, showed that Trump received 39 percent, Biden received 33 percent and Kennedy received 19 percent in a three-way race. A separate 9 percent said they didn’t know or weren’t sure. previously reported that RFK Jr. appeared to be siphoning more support from Trump than Biden.

“Trump’s polling continues to defy gravity in the primary and the general election. Kennedy today does not change the result – an election held today would elect Donald Trump,” said Mark Penn, the co- director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll. “There’s a lot of time and events to go but Trump has a significant edge at the starting line.”

Not All Bad for Biden

A YouGov poll released on October 16 showed Biden one point ahead of Trump.  An October 15 Morning Consult poll showed Biden up two points over Trump.  But the Marist Poll conducted October 11 provided Biden with the most room to breathe as he led the former President 44% to 37%.

- Gilbert Horowitz,

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