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OAKLAND PARK, Fla (Gambling911.com) - The FOMC will meet for its September session after holding the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% in July, according to CNBC. The policy statement and updated economic projections are scheduled for release on September 16 at 2:00 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
The -700 odds (87.5% implied probability) from BetOnline.ag is fueled by hotter-than-expected inflation metrics and oil prices topping $100 a barrel amid Middle East conflicts.
You can find the Yes/No odds below, and they'll be updated in real-time at the BetOnline website.
Will Fed Chair announce interest rate hike on September 16?
Yes -700
No +400
Those trading at Kalshi are giving the quarter basis points increase an 83% chance of happening as of Monday morning September 14. That's up from around 24% back in Mid-August.
This would mark the first rate increase since July 2023.
"The probabilities in the market seem higher than I would necessarily assign at this point," Loretta Mester, former president of the Cleveland Fed, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance.
Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, still thinks the central bank is more likely than not to hold rates steady.
"Ideally, the Fed should never be making up their minds based on one last-minute piece of data," Posen said. "This is why when you say 'I don't want to do forecasts,' it's self-defeating. Otherwise, you're just reacting to a backward-looking, inherently noisy reading."
Top Trending Prediction Markets September 14
Trending
Fed decision in September? Hike 25bps
83%
▲3
BTC price on Friday at 5pm EDT? $78,500 or above
48%
▲19
Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? D-House, D-Senate
51%
▲3
2026 Primaries
DE-AL Republican nominee? John J. Whalen III
72%
▼1
Delaware Republican Senate nominee? Michael Katz
87%
▲3
How many House Republicans will lose their primary this year? 5
90%
▼1
Top movers
Arsenal vs Tottenham: Who Will Finish Higher Arsenal finishes higher than Tottenham
98%
▲96
Top 3 Fantasy RB Josh Jacobs
1%
▼95
College Football: Rutgers Regular Season Wins 1+ win
98%
▲95
New
S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down Above $7594.24
99%
▲99
TSA avg check-ins from Sep 14 to 20, 2026? Above 2.35 million
62%
▲62
US gas prices this week Above 4.4000
50%
▲50
Highest volume
2028 Democratic presidential nominee Jon Ossoff
$217,055,621 vol
17%––
2027 NFL Champion LA Rams
$106,837,611 vol
12%
▼2
Los Angeles Mayor winner? Karen Bass
$93,689,524 vol2 markets
64%
▼1
- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com
