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A new N+ Univision and YouGov poll, with respondents polled between August 27 and September 4, 2026, shows Democrat James Talarico leading with 48% of the vote compared to Paxton’s 43% in the Texas Senate race. Roughly 7% of voters remaining undecided. This development marks a significant turn for a state that has long been considered a Republican stronghold.
As of Friday evening September 11, the odds at BetOnline had both candidates priced at -115 each.
The last Democrat to win a U.S. Senate election in Texas was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988—nearly 38 years ago.
Bentsen won reelection on November 8, 1988, defeating Republican Rep. Beau Boulter by a landslide, roughly 59% to 40%. Interestingly, Bentsen was simultaneously Michael Dukakis' vice-presidential running mate that year. The Dukakis-Bentsen ticket lost Texas to George H.W. Bush, while Bentsen comfortably won his Senate race.
Bob Krueger, also a Democrat, served briefly as a Texas U.S. senator in 1993 after being appointed to replace Bentsen when Bentsen became Treasury secretary.
Reports suggest Talarico's campaign has raised between $68 million and $72 million, with the vast majority of these funds coming from small-dollar donations. Talarico has vowed not to accept funding from AIPAC. American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is a U.S. advocacy and lobbying organization whose central goal is strengthening the U.S.-Israel relationship.
During this week's Republican midterm convention, Paxton warned that a victory for his opponent would be detrimental to Texas.
“California already has two senators; it doesn’t need a third. But that’s exactly what James Talarico would be,” Paxton said.
T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
